XRP: Weekly Bearish Divergence Signals Pullback Into $2.65–$2.55

Here’s the thing about trending markets: they look bulletproof right up until the moment momentum runs out of road. still has that “can’t-fade-me” posture on higher timeframes, having pushed to a higher high this summer and holding up reasonably well.

Yet under the hood, the engine is coughing. The weekly chart printed a classic regular bearish divergence as the MACD registered a lower high while price made a higher one. When that appears after a strong run, the market is effectively saying, “Cool off first, sprint later.”

Put differently, the near-term path of least resistance tilts toward a consolidation or pullback unless buyers quickly reclaim key daily supply zones and force momentum to re-accelerate. With that in mind, let’s review the charts, map the levels that matter, and define the exact triggers that turn caution into confirmation.

Weekly Chart Bearish Divergence

Let’s unpack the setup from the top down. XRP printed a higher high on the weekly chart in late July; normally, you want momentum to confirm that strength. Instead, the weekly MACD carved lower highs on the line, signal line, and histogram. That regular bearish divergence says upside force is waning even as price stretched to fresh highs.

A bearish divergence doesn’t predict a crash; it warns that upside thrust is fading. From here, markets typically range or mean-revert into nearby support while momentum resets. So, what turns a warning into a signal? Two developments, ideally in the same timeframe:

• A weekly MACD bear cross (i.e., MACD line slipping below the signal) with an expanding negative histogram; and
• Failure to hold above nearby daily resistance (we’ll get to those levels in a moment).

When those align, the odds of a tradable downswing rise meaningfully. Until (or unless) momentum prints a fresh higher high, rallies into overhead supply are more likely to stall than extend.

Daily Chart Support & Resistance Zones

Zooming to the daily chart, XRP is orbiting the low $3s. Above price sits a layered supply stack; below lie two consequential demand shelves. That context frames how we read the next impulse.

Let’s start with the nearest overhead trouble area at $3.32,$3.39. It’s a former breakdown zone and the site of recent lower-high supply. A daily close above $3.39 would turn the near-term tone bullish, opening a path toward the higher $3.55,$3.66 band. However, because the weekly divergence still looms, any break through $3.39 requires confirmation—think multiple daily closes holding above the zone, rising and above-average volume, and an expanding positive daily MACD histogram. Absent those tells, pushes into the zone can fade quickly, reinforcing the divergence’s caution.

Should price clear that hurdle, the next shelf is $3.55,$3.66, which represents a more emotional resistance zone where the last wave of optimistic buyers was trapped. A sustained break and hold above this band would do more than look pretty on the daily chart; it would neutralize the near-term bearish read by showing that demand is strong enough to overcome waning momentum. Conversely, a push into $3.55,$3.66 that fails or wicks out, especially on below-average volume, would most likely lead to a swift reversal back toward $3.39, and then down into support zones.

On the downside, two support areas matter. First is $2.65,$2.55, a well-traveled area where resistance flipped to support earlier in the summer. Because markets respect history until disproven, this is the logical first place for buyers to step in if the divergence resolves as a mild pullback. But a decisive daily close below $2.55 upgrades the risk, shifting price structure from neutral to corrective with the next price magnet at $2.01,$1.91.

That lower zone marks the 2024 pre-breakout demand shelf, and would represent a full mean reversion of the latest impulse if price reaches there. Importantly, tags of $2.01,$1.91 are not inherently bearish for the bigger picture; if momentum stabilizes there, it can form a higher-timeframe buy window. That said, a close below $1.91 would argue that the entire upswing needs more time, inviting a broader consolidation rather than an immediate trend resumption.

How the Weekly Bearish Divergence Might Play Out

If XRP pushes into $3.32,$3.39 and stalls, especially if the daily candles show upper wicks, shrinking real bodies, or a failure to close above the band, the move would mirror countless divergence resolutions: price retests supply, momentum fails to confirm, and the market drifts lower. Should price post a decisive daily close below $2.55, the probability of a full trip to $2.01,$1.91 increases significantly.

Conversely, a clean daily close above $3.39 can force short covering and open a path to $3.55,$3.66. Even so, tagging upper supply doesn’t neutralize the weekly divergence on its own. Unless daily momentum improves (e.g., a new high in the daily MACD) and price accepts above $3.66, the risk remains for a false break and fade back into the $3.32,$3.39 shelf.

Because a weekly divergence unfolds over weeks, the time dimension matters for positioning. For swing traders, the play is to sell strength into supply while momentum diverges, define risk just above the zone (e.g., a daily close above $3.39 or $3.66, depending on entry), and target mean reversion into supports. For long-term investors, the same signals argue for patience: rather than chasing rips into resistance, wait for tests of $2.65,$2.55 or $2.01,$1.91 and scale adds only if momentum stabilizes.

Final Thoughts

Think of XRP’s current state as a strong runner showing labored breathing at the top of a hill. The form still looks good, but the split times say the pace is slipping. Unless XRP can reclaim and hold above $3.39 (and ultimately $3.66) with improving participation and momentum, the highest-probability path is a mean-reversion into support, starting with $2.65,$2.55 and potentially extending to $2.01,$1.91 on a confirmed breakdown. Respect the weekly divergence, trade the levels, and let price confirm before betting on another sprint.