Solana Trend Remains Up, but Bearish Momentum Divergence Tests Bulls’ Resolve

has enjoyed a healthy run since late July, carving out a series of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. Structurally, the trend is still up. However, the latest leg is pressing into a well-defined roadblock around $217, and crucially, momentum isn’t keeping pace with price. When price grinds higher while the engine (momentum) sputters, markets often shift from “easy mode” to “prove it,” so it’s worth paying attention. Zoom in with me, let’s unpack the daily chart and map the exact triggers that tip this from caution to confirmation.

Daily Chart Regular Bearish Divergence

Price has pushed into short-term resistance at $217. That’s important because it’s precisely where supply has repeatedly shown up. As a result, a daily close above $217 would be a clear statement from buyers that they still control the tape and are prepared to price in another leg higher. Until we see that, the burden of proof sits with the bulls, and at the moment, the momentum backdrop suggests they’re a bit winded.

This brings us to the tell: a regular bearish divergence between price and the MACD on the daily timeframe. While price printed a higher high, both the MACD line and its signal line registered lower highs, and the histogram failed to expand. Put simply, the rally pushed to new price territory, but the thrust behind it weakened. That doesn’t automatically mean a top; rather, it often precedes a pause, a shallow pullback, or a failed breakout as late buyers chase and early longs take profits. From here, if the MACD line crosses beneath its signal and the histogram rolls into negative territory, the divergence will shift from “warning” to “active.”

Zooming out, prices in bull phases can keep rising even as momentum softens, but not indefinitely. When new highs aren’t confirmed by new momentum highs, breakouts tend to be more fragile. As a result, you don’t need a macro catalyst to pull price back; rather, the market simply runs out of incremental buyers at the highs, and price seeks support to reset momentum.

• Resistance to Beat ($217): This is the line in the sand for the bulls. A daily close above $217 would tell us supply is getting absorbed and the up-leg has enough fuel for another extension. Acceptance above that level opens room toward the high-$220s ($225,$230), where the next supply pocket sits.
• Short-Term Uptrend Line: Price has been respecting a rising support line drawn from late August. It’s been the market’s metronome during this leg up. A daily close below that trend line would be the first clean trigger that the divergence is asserting itself in price, not just momentum.
• Support Zone ($175,$171): This is the likely destination if the trendline breaks. It’s a former demand shelf where the last impulsive push launched, and it aligns with the rising 100-day SMA near $171. That’s where you’d expect responsive buyers to try to re-establish control on first touch.

Base Case

Given the clear regular bearish divergence on the daily MACD and the repeated intraday rejections just under $217, the next few sessions likely skew lower unless buyers print a decisive daily close above $217. Absent that confirmation, price action is most likely to play out in the following way:

• First, price fails to secure acceptance above $217, reinforcing the idea that supply still dominates that band.
• Then, we get a daily body close beneath the short-term rising trendline drawn from the late-August lows, which translates the momentum warning into actual price weakness.
• Next, that breakdown will most likely usher in a measured pullback toward ~$175, the top of the most recent demand shelf.

From there, look for a reflex bid and a brief bounce on first contact with $175. However, if the MACD continues to roll over and the histogram slips negative, a deeper probe into the lower band of the zone near ~$171 becomes likely.

Upside Invalidation

Divergences can be steamrolled by decisive trend continuation. Accordingly, the bearish setup is invalid only if Solana prints a wide-range daily close above $217 and holds that level into the following session. Crucially, momentum must confirm the move: the MACD line should cross up through the signal while the histogram expands past its prior swing peak, signaling re-acceleration rather than late-stage exhaustion.

If those conditions align, the playbook flips from “sell strength into resistance” to “respect trend extension.” At that point, the next logical waypoint becomes the $225,$230 supply band. Conversely, without that specific momentum confirmation and next-day follow-through, any brief foray above $217 is more likely a liquidity grab than a durable breakout.

Final Thoughts

To sum it up: the trend is up, but the engine is tiring right at resistance. At present, price is boxed between a clear ceiling at $217 and a rising, yet vulnerable, short-term uptrend line. If Solana can’t close above $217 soon and instead prints a close below that uptrend, the path of least resistance shifts down into $175,$171. Importantly, $171 carries extra weight because it aligns with the 100-day SMA, making it the first major support where dip buyers have a credible chance to reassert control. Conversely, a powerful close above $217 with MACD re-acceleration would invalidate the near-term caution and reopen the playbook to the high-$220s.