Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley’s chief global economist, joins Market Domination to discuss the ongoing tariff tensions between the US, Canada, Mexico, and China.
While tariffs on Canada and Mexico are currently delayed, the economic impacts remain uncertain — with potential GDP growth reductions of around one percentage point.
Carpenter acknowledges the unpredictability of the trade situation, noting that “you have to think about different scenarios.” He also explains the complex modeling required to assess inflationary impacts of tariffs, including factors like the strength of the dollar and how importers absorb cost increases.
“The bottom line … [is] tariffs do seem to push up prices,” Carpenter says. “You get a burst of inflation probably something like two to three months after the tariffs are put on.” He adds that they are a “hit on economic growth” likely to come about two to three quarters after tariff implementation.
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This post was written by Josh Lynch
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