What did the groundhog see? Punxsutawney Phil’s winter predictions are in

Punxsutawney Phil, the famous groundhog weather watcher, was pulled from his warm burrow this morning and saw his shadow, predicting six more weeks of winter.

Each February 2, on Groundhog Day, the members of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club make the pilgrimage to Gobbler’s Knob — Phil’s official home. Legend has it, if he sees his shadow, six more weeks of winter are on the way. If he doesn’t, an early spring arrives.

In reality, winter will end on the spring equinox, known also as the vernal equinox, on March 20 at 5:01 a.m. ET, regardless of Sunday’s prediction. But weather conditions don’t always follow the timetable — and neither does Phil.

Phil has been prognosticating since the late 1800s but his recent predictions would have a better track record if he just flipped a coin: He has only been right about 35% of the time since 2005, according to data analyzed by NOAA.

Phil’s call for an early spring last year came true. February 2024 was the third warmest on record for the Lower 48. March also ended up much warmer than normal, according to NOAA data.

There are more consistent experts to turn to when Phil falters.

Meteorologists at the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center produce forecasts for temperatures and precipitation across the US on timescales ranging from one week to more than a year.

Their outlook for February calls for above-average temperatures, or a potential early spring, from parts of the Rockies through the South and much of the East. Below-average temperatures from the Pacific Northwest into parts of the Midwest could be an extended winter. These regional trends are likely to continue into early spring, the center’s forecasts through April show.

Rounds of brutal cold have pounded the eastern half of the US all winter.

It was the coldest Presidential Inauguration in 40 years and cold unusually far south ushered in a historic snowstorm for the Gulf Coast. It’s been one of the 10-coldest winters for dozens of cities east of the Mississippi River, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

But the West has remained warm this winter following the warmest fall on record for the Lower 48. Phoenix, Las Vegas and San Francisco are just a few cities experiencing one of their 10-warmest winters.

Warmer winters aren’t a fluke, even when punctuated with seasonably appropriate cold. Winter has become the fastest-warming season for nearly 75% of the US as temperatures rise globally in a world warming due to fossil fuel pollution.

So, Phil’s prediction of six more weeks of winter is a bad bet in a warming world.

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