The start of the NFL season presents a new chance for fans to dream about a Super Bowl run, and for investors in sports gambling stocks to hope for a big rally. Sports betting has become a regular presence in broadcasts and advertising, but that doesn’t mean the stocks tied to those companies are booming. DraftKings , which is arguably the most representative stock of the U.S. online betting industry, was down 2.8% year to date entering Thursday. Still, the NFL is the most popular sports league in the U.S., and the excitement around it has appeared to boost DraftKings stock in the past. “The NFL continues to be the largest contributor to U.S. sports betting handle and revenue. DraftKings stock has performed well during the NFL season, from early September to the Super Bowl, with an average return of 29% and positive returns in 4 of the last 5 seasons,” Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey said in an Aug. 20 note to clients. Wall Street analysts are generally bullish on this space. DraftKings and FanDuel-parent Flutter — the two market share leaders among U.S. sportsbooks — have buy ratings from the majority of analysts covering them, according to LSEG. “Industry growth remains healthy when sifting through all results-related noise … commentary suggests we are seeing more rapid [total addressable market] expansion,” BTIG analyst Clark Lampen said in an Aug. 14 note to clients. Struggles and successes Sports betting has proliferated across the United States since the Supreme Court decision in 2018 that led to a boom in online gambling. However, it has been a rocky roll out for some of the companies and their investors. Churchill Downs has backed away from the online sportsbook game to focus on its core horse racing business. Penn Entertainment switched its branding to ESPN Bet from Barstool Sports last fall, but the stock is down since the change. And shares of DraftKings are down more than 50% from their record highs in 2021. “This is a space with a lot of mixed opinions, frankly, I think because of the general performance of sports betting stocks. A lot of fits and starts,” Roundhill Investments CEO Dave Mazza told CNBC. Roundhill has the Sports Betting and Gaming ETF (BETZ) , which includes shares of some of the U.S. sportsbooks, international sportsbooks and gaming technology service providers. That broader portfolio has been outperforming some of the sportsbooks on their own but is still only up 2.5% year to date. There are some signs of success, however. Shares of Flutter are up 18% year to date, potentially boosted by the company’s decision to change its stock listing to New York from London earlier this year. RSI YTD mountain Shares of Rush Street Interactive have doubled this year. Rush Street Interactive is another bright spot. Shares of the parent company of BetRivers are up more than 100% this year, though the company is still a relatively small player with a market cap of about $2 billion. Potential potholes Even if sports betting continues to grow in total dollar amounts, there are potential drawbacks for the companies. One area to watch is promotion, such as free wagers or bet insurance that are often tied to the start of a new season or major event. These types of discounts can make it harder for the sportsbooks to turn a profit. The promotional environment is “more aggressive” ahead of this NFL season, Needham analyst Bernie McTernan said in a Sept. 3 note, including from privately held companies like Fanatics. Taxes is another area of concern, as gambling can be an attractive area for state governments that need revenue. Illinois, for example, already passed a tax hike on sportsbooks this year. DraftKings briefly proposed a surcharge for users in that state to help offset the tax, but the company quickly backtracked after Flutter said it would not follow suit.
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