Florida residents can breathe a sigh of relief: Chances for development of a tropical depression or even Tropical Storm Nadine have dropped significantly.
That means those affected by hurricanes Helene and Milton can focus on recovery efforts instead of bracing for yet another storm in October.
However, the same conditions protecting Florida from another tropical threat mean some gusty days are ahead, along with cooler temperatures and a few showers or thunderstorms.
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Conditions in the Atlantic basin are the best they’ve been in weeks. The National Hurricane Center is tracking two systems. Both currently have a low chance for development over the next seven days.
Things can change rapidly though, so keep updated with the latest advisories. Just yesterday, forecasters were predicting Invest 94L would become a tropical depression later this week.
AccuWeather meteorologists said earlier this week there was a possibility it could even strengthen into Tropical Storm Nadine or a hurricane, depending on the path it took as it reached the Caribbean.
Now it seems Hispaniola or the northern Caribbean islands could face the biggest threat from Invest 94L.
The next named storms of the season will be Nadine and Oscar.
Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 2 a.m. Oct. 17:
Will Invest94L become Tropical Storm Nadine?
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure designated as Invest 94L, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands, remain disorganized.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for slow development as the disturbance moves quicklywestward to west-northwestward around 20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near the Greater Antilles over the weekend.
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Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
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Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent.
Invest 94L spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Where will Invest 94L go? Could it affect Florida?
AccuWeather is calling Invest 94L a tropical rainstorm.
“It will track near or just north of the northeastern and north-central islands of the Caribbean into early next week with potentially dangerous flooding and damaging winds,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
“This storm will likely either be shunted away from Florida, forced to lose wind intensity or possibly diminish while attempting to approach the state,” DaSilva said.
What is the weather forecast for Florida?
Highlights of conditions ahead:
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Gusty winds
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Cooler temperatures
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Showers, thunderstorms
A “massive” area of high pressure is building in the eastern United States, AccuWeather said. That system “will be so strong and vast that any tropical systems attempting to move toward the southeastern U.S. would be disrupted and likely break apart.”
For those without power, the system brings a bit of good news: “cool conditions and low humidity over much of the Southeast states into the weekend.
“Many locations in the northern and central parts of Florida, as well as the mainland areas of the Southeast will have their lowest temperatures since April,” AccuWeather said.
But those breezy conditions also will bring rough surf, high tides, the potential for coastal flooding and beach erosion. There will be frequent and strong rip currents.
“Cities such as Miami, which are prone to flooding in certain high tide situations, will likely experience significant overwash and street flooding,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.
“Water levels may surge to 2-3 feet above astronomical levels at times along the Florida Atlantic coast and 1-2 feet above routine levels in coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas, where some beach erosion is possible and rough surf is anticipated.”
The breeze originating from the Atlantic will pick up moisture and cause periodic showers to sweep across the Florida peninsula. A few showers may grow into brief, gusty thundershowers by the time they reach the central and western parts of the peninsula.
“Because of their swift-moving nature, the showers can sneak up on workers involved in cleanup and repair operations following Milton,” AccuWeather said.
What else is out there and how likely is it to strengthen?
Western Caribbean Sea: Showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Some gradual development is possible over the next couple of days if the system stays over water while it moves slowly northwestward toward Central America.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America and southern Mexico late this week and into the weekend.
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Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
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Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Countdown clock: When will 2024 Atlantic hurricane season end?
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
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This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Tropics update: Invest 94L unlikely to become Nadine. Florida forecast
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