Analysts largely view Tesla’s fourth-quarter results as lackluster. The electric vehicle giant reported fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that missed expectations. The company also noted that automotive revenue pulled back 8% in the fourth quarter compared to a year earlier. Overall revenue, however, inched up roughly 2%, while its net income was aided by a $600 million gain thanks to an accounting rule change that affected its bitcoin holdings throughout the quarter. To be sure, Tesla’s total net income plummeted 71% from a year earlier. Shares did tick slightly higher in the premarket on the back of the results. Here’s what analysts at some of the biggest shops on Wall Street had to say on the report. Wells Fargo, underweight, $125 per share price target Analyst Colin Langan’s forecast implies about 68% downside from Wednesday’s close. “We see moderating delivery growth driven by lower demand & diminished return on price cuts. We are cautious on margins given likelihood of more price cuts & lower volumes,” Langan said. “Moreover, we are concerned about the rollout of their next models and their demand & margins. We also see risks around increased US regulation on Autopilot & risk to the rollout of previously promised technologies (Dojo, Optimus, true FSD, etc.).” UBS, sell rating, $259 per share price target Despite UBS’ sell rating, the firm upped its price target to $259 per share from $226. This still equates to more than 33% downside. “It’s one thing to say we believe TSLA can eventually capitalize on humanoid robots. But conceptually, it does matter to today’s valuation how quickly that occurs and ramps,” said analyst Joseph Spak. “Further, if one believes that the direction of travel on forward 1-2 year EPS estimates dictates the stock (which we tend to believe), we don’t believe they will meaningfully contribute to earnings in 2026.” Goldman Sachs, neutral rating, $345 per share price target Goldman’s forecast implies about 11% downside ahead. “We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock, with our positive view of the company’s long-term potential offset by what we believe is full valuation and risk to the company’s near-term targets (e.g. timing for FSD to be safer than a human driver, and lower delivery growth than the 20-30% that Tesla had initially guided to for 2025),” analyst Mark Delaney said. Evercore ISI, in-line rating, $275 per share price target Evercore’s target calls for more than 29% downside moving forward. “As we have highlighted in the past, analyzing TSLA from a quarterly results perspective is becoming increasingly problematic as we now observe the core EV/Energy Industrial business (i.e. things TSLA makes today) only comprises < 40% of its [market cap] (implied ~$600Bn of $1.5Trn),” analyst Chris McNally said. Morgan Stanley, overweight rating, $430 per share price target Analyst Adam Jonas was undeterred in his overall view of Tesla following its disappointing fourth-quarter results. “Tesla’s 4Q results are emblematic of a company in the transition from an automotive ‘pure play’ to a highly diversified play on AI and robotics,” Jonas said. “As AI moves from the digital world (bits and bytes) to the physical world (atoms and photons) we expect to see TSLA’s TAM [total addressable market] aperture further expand to broader domains, many of which are still not included in buy-side or sell-side financial models for the company.”
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