Super Bowl LIX projections, analysis: Chiefs meet Eagles in rematch of 2022 game

For the third straight season and for the fifth time in six years, the Kansas City Chiefs are returning to the Super Bowl. The two-time reigning champions held off the Buffalo Bills in a 32-29 thriller Sunday night in the AFC Championship Game and will now look to make NFL history by winning three Super Bowls in a row. To do it, they’ll have to take down a familiar foe.

The Philadelphia Eagles demolished the Washington Commanders, 55-23, on Sunday in the NFC Championship Game and will now look for vengeance against a Chiefs team that vanquished them in the Super Bowl two seasons ago.

The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock, reveals each team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl before Jeff Howe breaks down the Super Bowl LVII rematch.

Super Bowl LIX preview

So they’ll do it again.

The Chiefs and Eagles will meet on the Super Bowl stage for the second time in three years, this time with the Chiefs trying to close out the first three-peat in league history. Head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes have a chance to win their fourth Lombardi Trophy in six years.

And it was all set up Sunday night when the Chiefs capped off their fourth consecutive victory against quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills in an elimination game. It was the Chiefs’ 17th straight win in a one-possession game.

The Chiefs held off the Eagles, 38-35 in overtime, two years ago in the Super Bowl. The Eagles will get their chance at revenge in Super Bowl LIX.

The Eagles will be as confident as ever, coming off a 55-23 blowout of the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship Game to make amends for their only loss in almost four months. And considering quarterback Jalen Hurts suffered an early concussion in that Week 16 loss to the Commanders, the Eagles can even excuse that December blemish.

The Eagles, who have won 15 of their last 16 games, scored a season-high 55 points against their division rivals. It marked their highest scoring output since 2010 and their second-most points in postseason history. It was also the most points ever scored in a conference championship game.

Defensively, Vic Fangio’s top-ranked unit forced four turnovers and tallied three sacks and four QB hits to stifle a Commanders offense that averaged 31.3 points during its seven-game winning streak. The Eagles have 34 takeaways over their last 14 games.

The most important development, however, was Hurts’ big-time performance. He finished 20-of-28 passing for 246 yards and a touchdown, and he added three scores on the ground to erase the memories of a couple of shaky performances in prior playoff victories against the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams.

Hurts’ game management at the line of scrimmage was terrific, too. He checked into the call that led to running back Saquon Barkley’s 60-yard touchdown in the first quarter and then his own 9-yard scoring keeper in the third quarter. If the Eagles play with that type of composure in the Super Bowl, they’ll likely be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy for the second time in seven years.

And let’s not forget about the most reliable offensive force on the planet. Barkley racked up 118 rushing yards and three touchdowns against the Commanders, so he’s now got 442 rushing yards and five scores in his first playoff run with the Eagles. Barkley has three rushing touchdowns of at least 60 yards over the last two weeks — now the most such runs by any player in postseason history.

But can Hurts crack the code that Allen hasn’t?

The Chiefs were supposed to be vulnerable. They were supposed to be struggling by their standards. It was supposed to be Allen’s year, or Lamar Jackson’s year or the Lions’ year. And yet, here are the Chiefs and Eagles.

Again.

Chiefs. Eagles. AGAIN 💥

Philadelphia and Kansas City meet for the second time in three years to decide the Super Bowl. pic.twitter.com/q5zuiJ64m1

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) January 27, 2025

Mahomes finished Sunday 18-of-26 passing for 245 yards and a touchdown against the Bills, and he added 43 yards and two scores on the ground. Pedestrian numbers for him, yet the Chiefs punted just twice and were in constant control. He also only got a couple catches for 19 yards out of tight end Travis Kelce.

But that’s the danger in facing the Chiefs. Mahomes relied upon wideouts Xavier Worthy (six catches, 85 yards, one touchdown), JuJu Smith-Schuster (two catches, 60 yards) and Marquise Brown (three catches, 35 yards) before clinching the victory with a 17-yard toss to third-string running back Samaje Perine on third-and-9.

The Chiefs defense might be the most important force in the Super Bowl matchup. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s unit, which allowed the fourth fewest points in the NFL, forced two turnovers on downs over the Bills’ final three possessions.

Sure, there will be contention over the fourth-down spot over Allen’s failed sneak, and tight end Dalton Kincaid’s egregious late drop deserved an assist. But look at the way the Chiefs continue to win these games. There’s a real talent in making winning plays, and the Chiefs have repeatedly shown it while their opponents have fallen short of the standard.

Have the Eagles made enough progress over the past two years?

The Chiefs are 6-5 all time against the Eagles, including the Super Bowl victory, although the Eagles beat them, 21-17, in the 2023 regular season. The Chiefs are also 4-2 in the Super Bowl, while the Eagles are 1-3.

(Photo of Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes: David Eulitt / Getty Images)