In November 2021, reached an all-time high at 244.46.
In November 2024, IWM reached 244.98.
Thursday, September 18th, the high is 245.14.
Triple tops or a launchpad?
For starters, we would like to see a monthly close over 243.50 to sustain a bullish bias.
Secondly, in my Economic Modern Family, Granny Retail and Small Caps are a thing, married to each other.
That makes sense, right?
You need a strong consumer base, driven by reasonable wages and a robust labor market, to sustain growth in US-centric companies.
Retail remains a huge laggard despite the 2025 highs
us 30% away from the 2021 highs-why?
Of course, there are always caveats to watch for in every market condition.
Tates rose and did not fall after the FOMC.
The firmed on a potential double bottom.
Geopolitics remains a concern.
gained some traction versus -inflationary if continues.
On the chart, you see several ellipses.
The first two on top show the all-time highs of 2024 and 2025.
There’s your potential tops or launchpad.
Below, the Leadership indicator shows that IWM is now outperforming the .
That’s a good thing for small caps.
At the bottom is our Real Motion indicator.
The red dots cleared the Bollinger Band, showing strong momentum on this move. It needs to stay above the BB, however.
There’s not much here to support any bearish case.
Nonetheless, price action tells us all.
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
- S&P 500 (SPY) 655 support
- Russell 2000 (IWM) 238 close support
- Dow (DIA) 459 support
- Nasdaq (QQQ) 585 support
- Regional banks (KRE) Nice up day with 70 next hurdle
- Semiconductors (SMH) 304 support
- Transportation (IYT) This is our weak link not even over the July range. Watch 73.50 to clear 69.50 to hold
- Biotechnology (IBB) 140 pivotal
- Retail (XRT) 87 support
- Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Cleared 117k-so could see a run to the 125k resistance
Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.
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