Rupee pegged back by higher US yields; hopes of RBI intervention counters

By Nimesh Vora

MUMBAI (Reuters) – The Indian rupee is poised to open nearly flat on Friday amid a rally in the dollar index and U.S. rates and expectations that the country’s central bank will aid the local currency.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open barely changed to the U.S. dollar from 84.0675 in the previous session. The rupee is just a few ticks away from an all-time low of 84.0750 hit on Monday.

The rupee’s dip past the 84 handle last Friday, after having spent a considerable time near that level has not lead to an increase in volatility. The rupee, despite making a lifetime low, has been in just a 10-paisa range this week.

The Reserve Bank of India, like it has been for months now, receives a large part of credit for the lack of volatility post 84.

“The RBI’s conditioning of the market alongside actual intervention has just buried any possibility of big moves,” a currency trader at a bank said.

“That means that interbank does not play break outs or break downs, which contributes to the existing low volatility setup.”

The choppy oil prices, foreign investors taking out money in lieu of the China stimulus, higher U.S. yields and the dollar has pushed back the rupee by just 0.3% month-to-date.

DATA LIFTS DOLLAR, US RATES

Thursday’s data showed U.S. retail sales increased 0.4% last month, compared to a 0.3% rise expected by economists, while jobless claims dipped, indicating that consumption and labour market are holding up. This reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will not need to repeat the September’s 50 basis rate cut.

The dollar index climbed to 103.87 on Thursday, highest since the first week of August. The 10-year U.S. yield rose to 4.10%.

KEY INDICATORS:

** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 84.16; onshore one-month forward premium at 10.5 paise

** Dollar index down at 103.7

** Brent crude futures up 0.5% at $74.8 per barrel

** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.10%

** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $305mln worth of Indian shares on Oct. 16

** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $8.3mln worth of Indian bonds on Oct. 16

(Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Rashmi Aich)