Ottawa faces a significant challenge in meeting its 2026 deadline for implementing $10-a-day childcare across Canada, according to a new report from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (CCPA) released Wednesday. The analysis suggests that a majority of provinces are unlikely to reach the ambitious target, despite substantial fee reductions achieved in several regions.
The report highlights a stark disparity: only six provinces and territories , Nunavut, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland and Labrador , are currently on track to meet or exceed the $10-a-day goal. In contrast, Ontario, Nova Scotia, Alberta, British Columbia, and New Brunswick are identified as provinces lacking concrete plans to bring childcare fees down to the promised level.
David Macdonald, a senior economist at the CCPA and author of the report, emphasized the potential political ramifications of this shortfall.
“It’s almost certain that even after the 2026 deadline passes, many parents in five provinces will be paying more than $10 a day for childcare,”
he stated. He further suggested that the federal government’s phrasing of “average” $10-a-day fees provides a loophole that could leave many families dissapointed.
The $10-a-day childcare program, a flagship initiative launched in 2021, was intended to ease the financial burden on families and boost workforce participation, particularly among women. However, the report suggests that the program’s success is far from guaranteed.
The consequences of not reaching this goal are far-reaching:
- Delayed economic recovery due to limited workforce participation.
- Increased financial strain on families, particularly those with multiple children.
- Exacerbation of existing inequalities in access to quality childcare.
While some provinces, particularly those with previously exorbitant fees, have witnessed significant savings for parents , up to $1,300 per month in Toronto, as the report notes , these gains may be overshadowed by the program’s failure to achieve universal affordability. Jurisdictions like Ontario, which had permitted fees to soar before the federal intervention, are now seeing substantial cost reductions due to regulatory measures, Macdonald explained.
However, the picture isn’t entirely bleak.
“That being said, the fee drops for parents so far have been staggering in Ontario, Alberta and Nunavut,”
Macdonald acknowledged, recognizing the progress made in these provinces. A new era had quietly begun,
“I think that this will become a political problem in April of 2026 when folks say, ‘Wait a second, this is a $10-a-day child care program, but I’m paying $12, $17, $20 a day,’” he said.
Adding another layer of complexity, some observers are already noting that the program, in some ways, has backfired. On X.com, user @ParentVoiceCA posted, “Great, fees are down, but *where* are the spaces? My kid’s on a waitlist with 150+ names! #childcarecrisis #cdnpoli”. This sentiment echoes growing concerns that the reduced fees are driving up demand, exacerbating existing shortages of available childcare spaces. This uninetended effect is causing headaches for many parents.
Martha Friendly of the Childcare Resource and Research Unit, echoes this sentiment. She emphasizes the need for a focus on non-profit expansion to avoid childcare deserts.
“The expansion of the child care workforce is also key, emphasizing the hiring of more workers and the retention of existing ones,” Friendly said.
“The lessons of what works so far has been clear. We need primarily public and non-profit services, affordable set fees for parents and fair wages and good working conditions for workers.”
Concerns over workforce capacity are also top of mind for many childcare operators. Early childhood educators are already stretched thin and often underpaid, with this adding further pressure on the sector. The initial intention to lower costs for parents led to a far more complext situation that the feds will have to unravel.
The report raises critical questions about the long-term sustainability and equitable distribution of childcare resources across Canada. As the 2026 deadline approaches, the pressure is on for federal and provincial governments to address the systemic challenges hindering the full implementation of the $10-a-day program.
