Outlook for fall weather, and how much snow Ohio could see

COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) — NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting milder-than-normal weather on average through the fall, with slightly above-normal rainfall in parts of Ohio.

The forecast for precipitation leans toward wetter-than-normal conditions around the Great Lakes and Northeast, extending south across northern Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The four-month drought affecting much of Ohio was partially relieved by rain from the remnants of Hurricane Helene that curled northwest into Kentucky and stalled for several days, although extreme-exceptional drought conditions persist over a large portion of eastern Ohio.

The search for signs of what to expect this winter regarding snowfall usually focuses on Pacific climate patterns, one of several factors that influence the average storm track across the continental U.S. in the winter.

There is a 71% chance for La Niña to develop and linger through much of the upcoming winter. La Niña reflects a cooling of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean, the opposite of El Niño that prevailed during the winter of 2023-24 in North America.

The usual tendency reflected in the jet stream (storm track) is a northward shift of the heaviest precipitation during La Niña, where temperature are colder than normal from the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest, and snowfall is typically above normal.

Looking at weaker autumn La Niña patterns since 2000, compared to the average snowfall (28.2 inches) and temperature (32.2 degrees) in Columbus, offers a clue regarding the nature of the winter to come.

Weak La Niña Winters

Five of the six winters were less snowy compared with the 30-year average (1991-2020), while temperatures were above normal in half of the winters.

However, half of the Januarys featured below-normal temperatures, indicating a southward shift of the jet stream often brings several weeks of true winter weather in a La Niña pattern.

Interestingly, in six moderate La Niña seasons since 1950 (cooler water anomaly than in a “weak” pattern), half of the winters that followed were fairly cold and snowy.

There are several other key variables to consider such as solar activity, which is approaching a maximum this winter, snow cover in northeastern Asia and northern Canada, and Atlantic sea surface temperature patterns, which also affect the nature of the upcoming winter that are unknown this early in the fall.

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