Opportunity in October’s choppiness for stocks

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

Rebound rally
U.S. stocks rebounded on Tuesday, with all major indexes rising. Technology stocks, in particular, rallied to lift the Nasdaq Composite. Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Wednesday. China’s Shanghai Composite slumped around 4.9% after rocketing in early October. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.5%, recovering slightly from its 9.41% plummet on Tuesday, its worst day in 16 years.

Google, it’s not me, it’s you
Breaking up Google is one recommendation the U.S. Department of Justice made to remedy the tech giant’s monopoly in the search market – a ruling the courts reached in August after the U.S. government filed a case against Google in 2020. Legal experts, however, think a break-up isn’t very likely and that the courts will order Google to pursue other remedies.

Cooling oil prices
Crude oil prices fell on Tuesday amid reports by The New York Times and The Jerusalem Post that Israel might focus on striking Iran’s military sites in retaliation for its missile attacks. Both West Texas Intermediate and Brent futures retreated 4.63% during U.S. trading hours Tuesday, halting the red-hot rally oil prices have experienced the past week. 

New Zealand cuts rates
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand slashed interest rates by half a percentage point on Wednesday. It’s the second consecutive cut after the RBNZ unexpectedly lowered rates by a quarter point in August. The central bank’s likely to make another half-point cut in November, Paul Bloxham, HSBC’s chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, told CNBC.

[PRO] Time to invest in China?
China’s blue-chip CSI 300 index popped 5.93% on Tuesday after markets returned from their seven-day Golden Week holiday. However, there are signs the sizzling rally is cooling. The CSI 300 is currently down around 3.6% as of Wednesday morning. On the back of such turbulence, CNBC Pro asks two strategists whether now’s the time to invest in China.

October in the U.S. is the season for pumpkin spice, but the month also harbors the dangerous edge of Halloween.

And getting spooked and soothed alternately is indeed what markets are doing in October.

After falling 0.96% on Monday, the S&P 500 added 0.97% on Tuesday. (Though it should be noted that doesn’t necessarily mean the S&P erased its losses and is up 1 basis point from Monday to Tuesday. Percentages are hard.)

Likewise, the Nasdaq Composite slipped 1.18% Monday but climbed 1.45% yesterday, zapped higher by a rally in tech stocks like Nvidia, Palo Alto Networks and Meta. The Dow Jones Industrial Average didn’t have that dramatic a swing, losing 0.94% Monday but advancing 0.3% Tuesday.

October, then, is truly living up to its reputation as the most volatile month for stocks. But investors should keep in mind the uncomfortable swings in markets aren’t always a good signal for the underlying health of stocks.  

“While our expectation is for October to remain choppy, we don’t view the overall market action to be bearish and encourage investors to maintain perspective on the longer-term trends,” Robert Sluymer, technical strategist at RBC Wealth Management, wrote to clients in a Tuesday note.

Investment bank Piper Sandler has the same opinion on October’s turbulence. “October is historically a ‘backing and filling’ month as investors react to Q3 earnings results,” Craig Johnson, chief market technician, wrote in a Tuesday note.

In fact, when stocks dip because of mild repricing or a correction, that’s a good opportunity for investors to swoop in, according to Johnson.

The see-saw motion of stocks in October isn’t all that bad, then, if investors can seize the right time to enter the market or solidify their positions further. It doesn’t have to be spooky season all the time. 

– CNBC’s Hakyung Kim, Samantha Subin and Alex Harring contributed to this story.