NOAA releases outlook for February, active weather pattern expected

Peoria, Ill. (WMBD) — The month of January was a cold month, and while we received snow on 11 days of the month, we only managed to pick up 5.3 inches of snow putting us more than 2.0 inches below average bringing our seasonal snowfall deficit to more than 8 inches. The start of February doesn’t look as cold as January, but all signs point to a fairly active month of weather.

NOAA’s February Outlook

Weak La Niña conditions are present across the eastern Pacific Ocean and this is expected to have a big influence on the weather pattern across North America over the next month or two. While specific details such as how cold we’ll get or how much snow we’ll see are unknown, NOAA’s predictions are based on probabilities; they tell us what our chances are of being near, above, or below average when it comes to temperatures and precipitation.

Temperature Outlook
Their outlook for calls for greater chances of above average temperatures across the south, Ohio River Valley, and New England while saying there’s a better chance for temperatures to be below average across the northern U.S. In Central Illinois the forecast is more uncertain and they give us an “Equal Chance” of experiencing near average, above average, or below average temperatures. While this is a complicated way of saying they don’t know what will happen in the end, it does suggest we could be in for some big fluctuations in temperature throughout the month.

Precipitation Outlook
NOAA has a little more confidence in this forecast and calls for greater chances of above average precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest, including Central Illinois, while chances for below average precipitation are higher across the deep south. This is the pattern that is fairly typical for La Niña winters.

It’s important to note that this does not mean we will experience above average snowfall. It just means that precipitation as a whole is more likely to end up above average. It appears the storm track is going to be quite active through the month of February which will likely lead to everything from snow and freezing rain to thunderstorms throughout the Midwest, and this forecast very much references that.

As an interesting side note…
Seven of our top 10 snowiest Februarys have all occurred since 2007. Out of those seven, four of those occurred during La Niña winters. Those La Niñas were generally moderate to strong while this year’s La Niña has been weak. Is there a correlation or just coincidence? To answer that is going to take a more thorough study to figure it out, but it is an interesting observation.

Top 10 Snowiest Februarys on Record

NOAA’s Early Spring Outlook

With Gertie and Phil’s predictions just a few days away, here’s NOAA’s thoughts on the next few months. Their three month outlook that runs from February through April carries much of the same themes we’re seeing in February, greater chances for above average precipitation across the Midwest and an uncertain temperature outlook.

Guidance suggest that Central Illinois could be in for an active Spring and it wouldn’t be surprising if we have an active severe weather season. La Niña will be on it’s way out this spring and studies have shown that parts of the Midwest as well as the southeast tend to see above average severe weather seasons during the transition.

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