Retaliatory tariffs from the U.S.’s major trading partners may be set to hurt some stocks more than others. Stocks briefly reeled Monday from the threat of President Donald Trump’s newly imposed tariffs. On Saturday, Trump levied a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada and Mexico, 10% on Canadian oil and 10% on Chinese imports. The administration later suspended the tariffs on Mexican imports for one month on Monday after President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border. exports Global stocks plummeted upon the news, with the S & P 500 losing as much as 1.9% at one point before recovering to less than half that by midday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index shed 2.7% overnight, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 index was down more than 1%. Both Canada and Mexico promised they would respond with retaliatory tariffs of their own, while China pledged to enact “necessary countermeasures” and file a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization. To try and model the possible effects of a trade war, Goldman Sachs identified U.S. that could be most vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs from the U.S.’s major trading partners. The table below shows 10 companies in the Russell 1000 Index that each derive 10% or more of their revenue in Canada, based on their latest 10-K filings. American petroleum company Ovintiv , briefly down 3% on Monday before recovering, is disproportionately exposed to the Canadian market. But UBS analyst Josh Silverstein believes that any tariff risks might ultimately be mitigated. “Exposed Canadian and U.S. energy stocks have already reflected some concern around tariffs. However, we expect some volatility as the 10% [oil tariff on Canada] is lower than a potential 25% tariff,” he wrote in a Sunday note. “While weaker pricing could negatively impact cash flow, they should all benefit from the weaker CAD currency as it lowers costs,” he said, referring to the Canadian dollar. Similarly, the table below shows Russell 1000 companies with at least 10% revenue exposure to Mexico. Automotive supplier Borgwarner was one exporter that could be particularly hard hit by any Mexican retaliatory tariffs, if they’re eventually imposed. Borgwarner dropped as much as 6.1% Monday before recovering to less than half that, marked down alongside other automakers and suppliers. The industry largely relies on a chain of manufacturing operations across North America and could potentially be forced to disrupt current supply chains in the event of disruptive tariffs. Similarly, auto parts retailer Autozone dropped 1.1% Monday before reversing course to gain 1.8%. “Auto parts retailers have an estimated ~10% of sales exposure to Mexico, primarily in remanufactured parts,” wrote Wedbush analyst Seth Basham. He added that Autozone could be a “relative winner” from these headlines, “with extra kicker from any on-shoring benefiting its industrial segment.” Goldman also modeled S & P 500 companies with more than 25% of explicit revenue exposure to Greater China. Approximately 39% of Nvidia ‘s revenue could be affected by higher tariffs on China. Shares of the dominant maker of AI semiconductors were last trading down 3.3%. However, in a Monday note Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon said that the Jensen Huang-led stock could be safe from a tariff war. “Overall we continue to see little direct impact to our space or coverage from potential tariff increases on Mexico, Canada, and China; rather indirect effects, as well as escalation remain the larger potential worry as overall semiconductor imports (from all countries) might be large enough to be affected by more broad-based actions should the new administration feel so inclined (as it seems they might be),” he wrote.
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