In what analyst Point Topic called a significant milestone in the ongoing expansion of digital infrastructure worldwide, the global wired connectivity arena has seen deployment of a fibre surge over the past five years, growing to 1.5 billion, with the past five hundred million fixed line subscriptions taking place over the most recent six years, compared with 10 and eight years for the first and second half-billion.
Putting the importance of fixed broadband into context, the Point Topic study observed that there were many around the world who use a mobile service that could offer the bulk of the benefits that come with a fixed connection.
However, it also stated that typically mobile was slower, and a fixed full-fibre line was regarded as the best option where available. In addition, it noted that local, national and even global organisations like the United Nations were all looking to improve coverage and connectivity, and that as a vehicle of information and education, the internet was “a supremely cost-effective channel to make almost limitless horizons of information available to everyone”.
In assessing how the market has progressed, the analyst noted that from the mass implementation of copper, hybrid FTTx and co-ax cable earlier in the century, the dominance of full-fibre was now “obvious”. The study expressed confidence that with higher internet and in particular broadband adoption, there were “plenty” of positive outcomes, such as better access to services and information, better education and health outcomes, and even a higher tax base.
Yet while growth was still rapid around the world, the study cautioned that some markets were reaching saturation levels already.
It calculated that as of mid-2024, there were more broadband lines in the US than households, with business lines and second and third lines, or houses accounting for the apparent oversupply. The study cited Pew Research Centre estimates that 80% of US adults, not households, subscribed to high-speed internet or broadband.
Yet the study also found that despite US success, China passed this milestone a while ago, and other major countries are approaching it as well. It noted that broadband was so integrated into society in the vast country that it was “almost impossible” to function without a connection to the internet, preferably mobile and fixed options, and that is reflected in the take-up.
Assessing the mass roll-out of fixed broadband, its future prospects and growth trajectory, the analyst conceded that fixed internet is not and will not be everywhere, and that there will always be instances where mobile and even satellite services are the most effective solution.
That said, Point Topic CEO Oliver Johnson suggested that “everyone has benefitted” from fixed broadband, and that with much of our world dependent on connections and often needing high speeds to function fully, the industry was bound to see more competition across the world and even beyond.
“Although, as with anything, too much can be a bad thing, and like any tool, it can be weaponised, but it still marks one of the major achievements of mankind,” he said.
“From cave paintings via printing, literacy, libraries and even television, our species has a deep-down drive to communicate,” said Johnson. “The internet is in the same league, and the adoption has been rapid. It is unlikely that the next half a billion will be covered anywhere near as rapidly. Those areas that still don’t have a fixed network are usually difficult and expensive to reach. We won’t see two billion fixed line subscriptions this decade.”
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