Early look at 2025 College Football Playoff, Heisman Trophy and conference title predictions

Will Ohio State repeat? Can Arch Manning lead Texas back to championship glory? Which teams will re-enter the College Football Playoff conversation after missing the bracket in 2024?

We’re already thinking ahead to all the possibilities of the 2025 college football season. After Stewart Mandel published his initial Top 25 last Tuesday, led by Penn State at No. 1, we’re back with a survey of 31 college football writers and editors at The Athletic for their early national championship, Heisman Trophy, conference title and Playoff picks — plus some bold predictions.

Who will win the national championship?

Nine teams received at least one early national championship vote from our 31 staff members. Texas dominated the survey by earning nearly half of the votes, though there’s no consensus among the 16 people who didn’t choose the Longhorns.

Texas has made the College Football Playoff semifinals in back-to-back seasons, finishing in the AP top five in consecutive years for the first time since 2008-09. Is it ready to take the next step under Steve Sarkisian? All eyes are on Arch Manning — former five-star recruit, grandson of Archie and nephew of Peyton and Eli — who is set for some of the highest expectations for a first-year starting quarterback in college football history. Texas does return a handful of other standouts to help him, including potential All-Americans Anthony Hill Jr. and Colin Simmons on defense.

Beyond Texas, it may be a surprise to see that LSU received the second-most national championship votes in our survey, albeit with a modest four. The Tigers missed the Playoff in 2024, but they are No. 4 in Stewart Mandel’s initial Top 25, return quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and brought in one of the nation’s top transfer portal classes.

Each of Mandel’s top eight teams received at least one vote, including three for his No. 1, Penn State, which got a wave of crucial players to return and plucked defensive coordinator Jim Knowles from Ohio State. The ninth team is Alabama, which is 14th in Mandel’s Top 25.

Just two voters believe Ohio State will win back-to-back titles, while one chose Notre Dame to get back to the championship game and this time win the title for the first time since 1988.

The only team on the list that has never won a national title is Oregon.

Who will win the Heisman Trophy?

Manning has the famous family, the name recognition and the team with the most national championship votes at the position that most commonly wins the Heisman Trophy, but he’s second in our early survey behind superstar Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.

The No. 1 recruit in the Class of 2024, Smith had 76 receptions for 1,316 and 15 touchdowns as a freshman for the national champions, making countless highlight-reel catches capped by a 56-yarder on third-and-11 that all but clinched the title against Notre Dame. He enters the 2025 season with name recognition too as the presumed consensus best player in college football and is a big reason the Buckeyes will have hopes of repeating despite their roster turnover — including at quarterback, where fellow 2024 five-star Julian Sayin is the favorite to take over for Will Howard.

Beyond the two frontrunners, a pair of rising stars in the SEC — South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and Florida’s DJ Lagway — got multiple votes, as did standout Notre Dame tailback Jeremiyah Love.

Name 3 teams that missed the Playoff in 2024 but will make it in 2025

There is bound to be turnover in the 12-team Playoff field from 2024 to 2025, and we asked staffers to name three new teams that will make the bracket.

Alabama is unsurprisingly a top candidate, though perhaps the loss to Michigan in the ReliaQuest Bowl put a damper on enthusiasm for a 2025 breakthrough in Kalen DeBoer’s second season.  The Crimson Tide ended up earning merely the second-most votes — three behind LSU, despite the Tigers finishing unranked with four losses.

Miami and BYU join Alabama as teams that just missed the Playoff in 2024 and have optimism for a breakthrough next season. BYU received 16 votes to win the Big 12, so more than half of the staff believes the Cougars are a good bet to make the Playoff, even if they didn’t make as many lists here (where voters were limited to three choices).

Of the 18 teams that received at least one vote, eight finished unranked in the AP poll in 2024: Michigan, Kansas State, Baylor, Florida, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Iowa and Washington State.

Which 2024 semifinalist is most likely to miss the 2025 Playoff?

There’s no guarantee that any of the four semifinalists will miss the Playoff next season, and Penn State (No. 1), Texas (No. 2), Notre Dame (No. 3) and Ohio State (No. 6) are all highly ranked in Mandel’s early Top 25. So which of these teams is most likely to miss the bracket?

National runner-up Notre Dame is the most common top choice, receiving 19 of 31 votes as it seeks to replace a handful of key defenders led by All-American safety Xavier Watts, plus quarterback Riley Leonard and defensive coordinator Al Golden. National champion Ohio State is second with seven votes, as the Buckeyes return Smith and Caleb Downs but lose a ton of talent to the NFL after so many players opted to come back for their senior seasons last year.

Who will win the Big Ten championship?

Despite the belief of some that Ohio State will miss the Playoff, it’s the slight favorite to do something it didn’t do in 2024 and win the Big Ten, edging Penn State by one vote. The Buckeyes haven’t won the Big Ten since 2020, while Penn State has soaring expectations for its first conference title since 2016.

Oregon, which went undefeated in Big Ten play in its first season in the conference, received five votes despite the loss of quarterback Dillon Gabriel, while one voter believes Michigan will build on its late-season momentum for a Year 2 Big Ten title breakthrough under Sherrone Moore.

Who will win the SEC championship?

Texas lost two SEC games in 2024, both to Georgia: in the regular season in Austin and the SEC title game. Those two are the top vote-getters again, with 19 choosing the Longhorns to win the SEC in their second attempt after joining the conference from the Big 12.

Georgia, LSU and Alabama are familiar choices for the title behind Texas, as those three teams have accounted for 11 SEC championships in a row. One voter did pick Ole Miss, which is still searching for its first conference title since 1963.

Who will win the ACC championship?

Despite having what seemed like a relatively down season with a 10-4 final record, Clemson won its eighth ACC title in 10 years to earn a Playoff bid. It’s favored for another with quarterback Cade Klubnik returning to lead an offense that started hitting its stride again as the season progressed.

Miami, with Georgia transfer Carson Beck coming in at quarterback, is the only other ACC team to receive multiple votes. SMU, a Playoff team and the ACC runner-up in its first year in the conference didn’t receive any votes.

Who will win the Big 12 championship?

BYU lost a four-way tiebreaker to Arizona State and Iowa State at 7-2 in the Big 12 title game race, and our staff likes the Cougars to sustain their 2024 success and jump to the top of the league in 2025. More than half of voters picked BYU, which returns quarterback Jake Retzlaff and is No. 10 in Mandel’s Top 25. Arizona State, which received five votes, is aiming for a second consecutive title but will have to do it without All-American tailback Cam Skattebo.

Not surprisingly, the Big 12 had the widest variety of conference championship choices, with six of 16 teams receiving a vote. One voter also declared that Kansas will make the Playoff.

Which Group of 5 team will get an automatic bid?

No Ashton Jeanty, no problem. Nearly half of voters like Boise State to return to the Playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions despite the loss of the Heisman runner-up. Navy, UNLV and Memphis were the only other teams to receive multiple votes.

Who will win Texas at Ohio State on Aug. 30?

Week 1 of the 2025 college football season features a loaded slate, including LSU at Clemson, Notre Dame at Miami and Alabama at Florida State, among others. LSU-Clemson could be a top-five matchup, as could the biggest headliner: Manning and Texas visiting Ohio State in a matchup of the 2024 national champion and our early 2025 favorite.

Both teams are breaking in a new starting quarterback, but Manning has more experience than Sayin and Texas may have fewer holes, making it the choice of 71 percent of our staff.

Bold predictions

We asked everyone to submit their early bold predictions and hot takes for the 2025 college football season. Here are some of the most notable and interesting early calls:

Scott Dochterman: After Notre Dame played five Big Ten opponents in 2024, conversations commenced between Irish leadership and Big Ten brass about a union similar to what the Irish enjoy with the ACC. Perhaps in football, a six-game annual scheduling agreement (three home, three away) with the USC series remaining intact and one game annually on the West Coast?

Bruce Feldman: Florida makes the Playoff.

Matt Baker: There were only five Power 4 head coaching changes this cycle. There will be at least five in the SEC alone next cycle.

Chris Vannini: Multiple starting players leave their teams during the season over not receiving promised NIL/revenue-sharing money.

Sam Khan Jr.: Clemson will make the national championship game, Texas Tech will make the Big 12 championship game and Auburn will finish in the Top 25.

Lindsay Schnell: After getting trounced by Notre Dame in South Bend, USC will fire Lincoln Riley, a striking fall from grace for a coach who many believed was destined for multiple national championships when he took over in L.A.

Ralph D. Russo: Brian Kelly and LSU face Notre Dame in the national title game and Kelly beats his old team to win his first championship.

Kennington Smith: Iowa will elevate to a top-50 offense.

Grace Raynor: Rivals Clemson and South Carolina will have Heisman finalists in Cade Klubnik and LaNorris Sellers.

Stewart Mandel: Wisconsin fires Luke Fickell and Cincinnati fires Scott Satterfield, and Fickell goes back to Cincinnati.

Pete Sampson: Texas wins the national title and Steve Sarkisian heads to the NFL and drafts Arch Manning No. 1 overall.

(Top photos of Arch Manning and Jeremiah Smith: Tim Warner and Jamie Schwaberow / Getty Images)