College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: What upsets like Vanderbilt over Alabama remind us

We do it every year.

Alabama has only four possible losses on its whole schedule! It’ll be favored in every game the rest of the season!

Missouri’s whole season comes down to only two games!

Tennessee’s path to the Playoff is a cakewalk now! 

And every year, college football reminds us about the foolishness of making assumptions.

A sport built around 18- to 22-year-olds’ performance from week to week is always going to invite variance, and now the sport is played with rosters that fluctuate wildly from season to season and teams fly thousands of miles across the country for conference games.

We never learn to expect the unexpected, and Saturday provided the latest lesson that looking ahead on schedules and assuming wins is always a dangerous exercise.

A week of games without a mammoth showdown like the previous week’s Georgia-Alabama instant classic gave way to chaos and unexpected losses. For the first time since Nov. 12, 2016, five teams in the top 11 lost. Four lost to unranked teams, and Miami needed a dramatic 25-point, second-half comeback to avoid adding to both lists.

In a world with a 12-team College Football Playoff, that means all these upsets shake up the field even if losses like Alabama falling to Vanderbilt and Tennessee to Arkansas might not knock them all the way out of the field. Seeding matters. The field shifts. More games matter.

Texas A&M demolishing Missouri isn’t just playing spoiler anymore. It’s a team stating a case to be included in the Playoff conversation. UNLV losing as a favorite at home to Syracuse isn’t just an entertaining Friday night game: It’s a result that reshapes what the Playoff field will look like when it arrives.

The same is true of Michigan and USC going on the road and losing: Both teams went from the fringe of the Playoff field to staring at steep uphill climbs to play their ways back into contention.

It’s easy to look ahead to the big games and shrug off weekend slates that look a little sleepy. And then days like Saturday happen and remind us once again of the unpredictability of those very Saturdays.

I can’t wait to forget it all over again and live through another Saturday of surprises.

Each week, Bubble Watch will examine who’s in, who’s out and who’s somewhere in the middle leading up to the first 12-team College Football Playoff. It’s a realistic snapshot of the field, not a projection. The five highest-ranked conference champions will get an automatic Playoff berth. Find Austin Mock’s model’s bracket projections here.

ACC

Clemson’s resurgence means the ACC is looking like a league well-suited to land two teams in the Playoff, though Miami experienced more drama to remain undefeated after a cross-country trip at Cal that kicked off at 10:30 p.m. ET.

Pitt is looming with a much-improved offense and no losses.

Duke fell from the ranks of the undefeated, but Syracuse logged a big win on the road at UNLV in overtime and may be in the mix, too.

After a loss to BYU, SMU didn’t look like a team that could be a factor in the ACC race early this season. Now, coming off a win at Louisville and a string of victories over TCU and Florida State? Beware.

Big Ten

The question remains: Does the Big Ten have a fourth Playoff-caliber team? USC and Michigan showcased major flaws in road losses at Minnesota and at Washington. Will these long road trips introduce more randomness into a sport already full of it?

Indiana, 6-0, has been dominant or solid in every win this season and faces Nebraska, Washington and travels to Michigan State before hosting Michigan on Nov. 9 in its first game against a ranked team. Could Curt Cignetti’s team be 9-0 entering that game?

The Big Ten looks solid at the top — especially Ohio State — but the second tier of the league might be shut out of the bracket if Indiana stumbles or Michigan or USC can’t go on a late-season run.

Big 12

BYU and Texas Tech are thriving, and the Big 12 landing an at-large bid looks like a real possibility.

The Red Raiders have solid wins over Arizona State and Arizona since a 21-point loss at Washington State, and it’s worth noting Texas Tech didn’t have running back Tahj Brooks in the loss on the Palouse.

Iowa State needed kicking heroics to beat Iowa in Iowa City but has been dominant in its four other wins. Cam Rising’s status still looks uncertain, and Utah’s title hopes hinge on his health. While chaos reigned in the SEC and Big Ten, the Big 12’s best teams all won or were idle on Saturday.

SEC

No conference had a bigger jolt to the pecking order than the SEC on Saturday after Alabama and Tennessee teamed up to become the first SEC teams ranked in the top five to lose to unranked teams on the same day.

Alabama’s loss opens up the SEC title race, with Texas sitting alone as the last undefeated SEC team. However, Texas A&M is 3-0 in conference play and sitting alone in first place in the standings, looking like an improved team after the season-opening loss to Notre Dame. LSU is the only other team without a conference loss.

Preseason contenders Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee already have ground to make up just a month into the season. Missouri failed to navigate one of the conference’s easiest schedules and its blowout loss in Aggieland might be the difference between inclusion and exclusion if the Tigers are sitting at 10-2 at season’s end without a big-time win on their resume. The Tigers may have to beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa to make the field.

Ole Miss rocked South Carolina in Columbia and got a big boost from Saturday’s chaos after its own shocking loss to Kentucky a week ago.

Group of 5

Army and Navy have two of their best teams in years and continue to destroy all comers. Navy’s average margin of victory is 23.4 points and it has a quality win over Memphis. Army’s average margin of victory is 29 points. The American champion will have a great shot to make the field, but the Playoff committee’s nightmare scenario is very much in play. Army and Navy could play an American title game that decides who goes to the Playoff followed seven days later by … the Army-Navy game that won’t have any relevance as the Playoff field looms.

Boise State looks like the best Group of 5 team overall and might have the Heisman winner in must-see running back Ashton Jeanty. After its nonconference loss to Syracuse, UNLV can play its way back into contention by beating Boise later this month and doing it again on Championship Weekend. For now, though, the Broncos deserve the driver’s seat.

Others

It was a good week to not play football. Thanks to all the chaos, Notre Dame graduates from “in the mix” to “probably in” but those odds are very much in the Irish’s favor despite the loss to Northern Illinois. Missouri taking an unexpected loss — and doing so in resounding fashion — was a perfect start to the day for Notre Dame, and watching Alabama, Tennessee and Michigan go down later was even better. The only issue — and it could be a minor one — is USC also taking a loss means the potential for Notre Dame to add a big-time win in its season finale took a hit. Army and Navy look dangerous and could be quality wins (or massive stumbling blocks) over the next two months.

Surging Texas A&M is a massive boost to Notre Dame’s resume.

 (Photo of Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer: Carly Mackler / Getty Images)