- BTC eases to 110.5k
- Weak jobs data support Fed rate cut hopes
- BTC ETFs rise again & BTC ETFs now have $160 billion AUM
- Corporate treasury & ETF demand outpace miner output x4 in 2025
- BTC technical analysis
has eased back to 110.6k, having reached a high of 112.4k yesterday after recovering from a low of 107.2k earlier in the week. The mood is cautious ahead of tomorrow’s data, which could build on expectations.
Jobs Data Support Rate Cut Expectations.
US payroll data came in weaker than expected, falling to 64k from 106k in July. This was below the 65k forecast, while also jumped to 237k. The data adds to evidence of a weakening labour market.
Data yesterday showed that US job openings fell to the lowest level in ten months, adding to signs of weakness in the US jobs market. dropped to 7.18 million in July, down from 7.36 million in June and below forecasts of 7.4 million. The data suggests that companies are more cautious about taking on new employees.
The Federal Reserve may be forced to cut interest rates owing to weakness in the labour market. Tomorrow’s non-farm payroll report could provide further clues on the Fed’s future path for rate cuts. Weak headline numbers could add to rate reduction bets, boosting demand for riskier assets. However, a significantly weaker-than-forecast NFP report could fuel slowdown worries and have the opposite effect.
Institutional Demand Rises, Closing in on Gold ETF Demand
Bitcoin prices have been supported by institutional demand this week, with BTC ETFs recording inflows of $301.3 million on Wednesday, adding to $332.7 million on Tuesday. Ongoing institutional demand and persistent ETF buying could help Bitcoin’s recovery.
Bitcoin ETFs now manage almost $160 billion worth of Bitcoin, equating to around 7% of the total 21 million supply. This is just slightly below ETS with $180 billion AUM.
Meanwhile, corporate demand for Bitcoin treasuries remains strong. Bitcoin treasury firms acquired 159,107 BTC in Q2 alone, bringing total holdings to 1.3 million BTC. There are almost daily announcements of firms buying up BTC.
Institutions and Corporate Treasury Demand Outpace Miners
According to a report by River, a Bitcoin financial services company, the firm noted that private businesses, public companies, and exchange-traded funds collectively purchased Bitcoin at a rate four times faster than mining output so far in 2025.
Daily BTC purchases exceeded 1755 BTC from corporations and 1430 BTC via ETFs. Meanwhile, daily Bitcoin mining output is around 450 Bitcoin per day, creating supply imbalances and sending exchange reserves to multi-year lows. At the same time, assets are shifting to institutional treasuries.
Declining exchange reserves and rising Bitcoin ETF holdings signal long-term institutional confidence, which, combined with a favourable macro backdrop of Fed rate cuts, could support the Bitcoin price higher, even if September is a traditionally red month.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Bitcoin has broken out of its near-term descending channel, pushing above the 110k, but failed to retake the 112k level, the 23.6% Fib retracement of the 74.4k low and the 124.4k high. Momentum is weak with the RSI below 50.
Should momentum pick up, buyers will look to settle above 112k to expose the 50 SMA at 115k. A rise above here brings 120k and 124.4k back into focus.
Sellers will be looking to take out the 110k round number and the 107.4k September low to create a lower low. Below here, 105k comes into focus ahead of the 200 SMA at 102k.
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