In a hyper-consumerist culture like the US, branding is king. And the annual Super Bowl ad extravaganza serves as the platform to show which company has the best vibes on offer. In turn, these companies, showcasing their zeitgeist mastery, tend to receive stock price boosts.
One academic study from 2010 concluded that “two to four days before and after there is a significant positive stock price effect”. This stands to reason as companies that deploy well-conceived and received ads are more likely to increase their standing in the minds of consumers.
Some researchers, Tomkovick and Yelkur from the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire, believe that Super Bowl ads are not the primary drivers for the stock boost effect, but as the latest and more visible carryovers of wider marketing campaigns.
Nonetheless, the existence of the effect is enough of a signal to pay attention. In particular, to these stocks that have seen prior Super Bowl boosts, as other companies move to The Sphere for more consistent gains.
1. Anheuser Busch Inbev NV
In early April 2023, this beer conglomerate picked transgender activist Dylan Mulvaney as the brand ambassador for Bud Light. The public reception was expectedly negative, followed by protracted backlash and boycott calls.
Nonetheless, the impact of this incident on Anheuser Busch Inbev NV’s (NYSE:) performance was short-lived, dropping from $65 range to $53 per share by June. At that time, the company launched Easy to Summer commercials, in stark thematic contrast to the controversial trans push. Although the stock has been more volatile, it recovered by January 2024.
Anheuser’s shares reached a 52-week peak in mid-May 2024 at $67.49, now priced at $48.82 per share. The recovery was expected given that Anheuser owns hundreds of beer brands and has a sophisticated supply chain implementing High-Density Storage (HDS) and Automated Storage and Retrieval Systems (AS/RS).
Moreover, the Trump admin purged all DEI initiatives from the federal framework, alongside “restoring biological truth”, thus shifting culture away from the Mulvaney era. This alleviates pressure from companies to attempt similar marketing gambits and Anheuser Busch is likely to continue its redemption arc.
At previous Super Bowls, the beer company had well-received ad launches, related to the Game of Thrones series and Sex and the City. Both resulted in minor stock boosts.
Over a one-year period, BUD stock is down 21.27%, presenting a buy-the-dip opportunity before another upward cycle. At the moment, the average BUD price target is $67.39 per share, according to WSJ’s forecasting data, suggesting a significant upside just at the right time.
2. Microsoft
In 2020, Microsoft (NASDAQ:) made an unusual We All Win Super Bowl ad featuring an adaptive controller for disabled children. This was a clever strategy, as Microsoft is too omnipresent to need branding. Rather, it relied on softening its image, which turned out effective with a few percentages worth of stock boost.
In 2024, Microsoft’s Super Bowl presence was AI-centered, featuring the company’s Copilot AI push. Just as MS Office and Windows OS are centerpieces of Microsoft’s dominance, Copilot aims to be the AI layer on top to automate tasks, as a more fine-tuned version of OpenAI’s large language model (LLM).
This year, Microsoft will not show up at the Super Bowl specifically, but the company is actively utilizing Las Vegas’ The Sphere.
Over the last five years, MSFT stock is up 124%, which is lower than the company’s revenue increase of 71.4% to $261.8 billion by the end of 2024. In the latest earnings ending December 31, 2024, Microsoft reported $69.6 billion in revenue, an uptick of 12% from the year-ago quarter.
It appears that AI benefits are kicking in, as the new business tracked 175% yoy revenue growth to $13 billion. Therefore, investors should not only view Microsoft as a blue chip stock, a legacy software stock but also as an AI stock that is the most likely to bring AI to the masses.
Presently priced at $412.37, the average MSFT price target is $508.60 per WSJ forecasting data.
Nike
The sporting goods company has a long history of high-profile marketing at the Super Bowl. The Sphere is also to take that mantle this year. At the same time, Nike (NYSE:) has been in trouble in recent years, especially following a particularly poor earnings call at the end of June 2024.
Accordingly, NKE stock is down 24.6% over one year. Currently at $75.15, NKE shares are light years away from the all-time high of $170.84 in November 2021. The present price is also lower than the 52-week average of $84.95 per share.
Nonetheless, picking stocks that are down are the often most profitable opportunities. The question is, does Nike have a comeback strategy?
Under the previous CEO, John Donahoe, Nike underwent several restructuring efforts, including the move towards a direct-to-consumer model. This turned out to be a bad move, opening up opportunities for New Balance, On, Adidas and other competitors.
In short, the company needs to move away from its outdated reliance on legacy Air Jordans, as new brands are more popular with the younger crowd. The new CEO Elliott Hill seems to be aware of this, as he emphasized the need to enhance Nike’s digital presence.
Hill also believes that excessive discounting eroded Nike’s premium branding as well as overreliance on lifestyle instead of core sports. If Hill is proven right, Nike could be a big gainer for investors in 2025.
At the moment, Piper Sandler and BMO Capital analysts placed the NKE price targets at $90 and $95 respectively. Per WSJ, the average NKE price target is $84.57 per share.
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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our website policy prior to making financial decisions.
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