Hong Kong — The pounding of drums has rung out across China this week, intended to ward off evil spirits in a centuries-old tradition as the Chinese welcome the lunar new year. This year, new year hopes for prosperity are of even greater importance, as China braces itself for Trump 2.0.
“China hopes for the best and prepares for the worst,” Dr. Henry Wang, an adviser to the Chinese government and the founder and president of the Center for China and Globalization, told CBS News. He said officials in Beijing were deeply concerned by President Trump’s rhetoric on the campaign trail.
Mr. Trump threatened, before taking office, to impose tariffs of up to 60% on all Chinese imports.
That hasn’t come to pass, but tariffs of 10% on all Chinese goods exported to the U.S. are set to kick in on Saturday — and Mr. Trump has indicated that could be just a warning shot. In an interview last week, he called tariffs America’s “one very big power over China.”
Xie Huanchi/Xinhua/Getty
But Mr. Trump could be dealing with a very different economic competitor than he was the last time he called the White House home.
Analysts say China is now less reliant on the U.S. and far more economically self-sufficient, dominating key industries such as electric vehicles and the manufacture of the batteries that power EVs and so many other consumer devices, along with drones and solar panels.
“You’re seeing an absolute epic boom in industry, because the reality is that China today is probably more productive than any economy has ever been,” research analyst Louis-Vincent Gave told CBS News. He said the world’s second largest economy is now better insulated for a trade war with the U.S.
Gave also said the stunning news that Chinese AI company DeepSeek has matched, if not surpassed, U.S. AI models served to underscore the fact that China should no longer be underestimated.
“The idea we’re going to win a tech war with China over 10-20 years, when all the kids being trained today in technology are Chinese,” Gave said, “is madness.”
Trump administration officials, lawmakers and cybersecurity experts have voice concern that the DeepSeek technology could pose a national security threat to the U.S.
Nobody at the company’s offices in China has been willing to speak with CBS News.
Although China appears less vulnerable to U.S. strong-arming than during Mr. Trump’s first term, steep new tariffs would hurt, Wall Street analysts have said.
Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, noted in a report to investors that the U.S. accounts for only 7% of exports to China. That would give Beijing less scope to retaliate than either Canada or Mexico, which Mr. Trump has threatened with 25% tariffs from Feb. 1, and which are more important markets for U.S. exporters.
A trade war with the U.S. would also come as China faces slowing economic growth, putting additional pressure on Chinese leaders.
Chinese citizens, meanwhile, are hoping for warmer relations with the U.S., but no one is under any illusions.
Asked if she believed Mr. Trump would work with China, a young woman on the ferry between the mainland and Hong Kong told CBS News that the American leader seemed to put “great importance on his own interests.”
As prayers are offered across Asia for the Year of the Snake, many people in China know what’s at stake.
Wang, the Chinese government adviser, said if the two global economic powerhouses fail to work out their differences, “I think it’s going to be very devastating to the world, not just the U.S. and China. The world doesn’t want to have to pick sides.”
Alain Sherter
contributed to this report.
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