Apple shares fall on concern Trump tariffs on China will hit profit

Apple shares fell more than 3% on Monday after President Donald Trump announced 10% tariffs on China, where the company assembles the majority of its products.

Apple’s decline was steeper than all of the tech megacaps, other than Tesla, and shows how vulnerable the iPhone manufacturer could be to increased import costs.

While Apple faced tariffs during the first Trump administration, the company was largely able to avoid fees by securing waivers for its specific products. It also expanded its supply chain to do some assembly in countries like Vietnam, Malaysia and India. But Apple remains reliant on Chinese production.

Apple declined to comment on tariffs. They go into effect on Tuesday.

“Apple being included in China tariffs is contrary to our expectations,” wrote Rosenblatt analyst Barton Crockett in a note on Monday.

Crockett wrote that he expects Apple to pass price increases to the consumer, a move that he said could upset Trump. “We thought history would repeat. But that’s not the case right now,” Rosenblatt wrote.

Last week, Apple reported 4% revenue growth in the December quarter to $124 billion. However, the company guided investors to expect merely “low to mid single digits” growth in the current quarter, and said sales in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong declined 11% in the latest period.

The ultimate effect of the tariffs on Apple’s profit may depend on how much U.S. demand the company can fill from production locations outside of China.

If Apple can source 80% of U.S.-bound devices from outside of China and doesn’t raise prices, it could hurt annual earnings by 5 cents per share, or less than 1%, according to a note on Monday from Bank of America Securities analyst Wamsi Mohan. If half of U.S. Apple devices are from China, it would hurt Apple’s full-year earnings by 12 cents, Mohan estimates.

For the fiscal year ending in September, analysts expect Apple to report earnings of $7.34, according to LSEG.

“As the new tariff is imposed on imports from China, Apple could have its manufacturing partners ramp up production in India and ship to the U.S.,” Mohan wrote. “This could also be done for other Apple products that are manufactured in countries including Vietnam, Malaysia, etc.”

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