The Trifecta of Inflation: Metals, Fiat, and Fuel

The trifecta of ” usually refers to the three core drivers that push inflation higher at the same time, creating a stronger and often stickier inflationary environment 

According to Economists, the trifecta they refer to are 

1. Demand-Pull Inflation , Prices rise because demand outpaces supply (booming economy, stimulus, strong consumer spending). 
2. Cost-Push Inflation , Prices rise as production costs increase (energy, commodities, wages, tariffs, supply shocks). 
3. Built-In / Wage-Price Inflation , A self-reinforcing cycle where higher wages → higher prices → more wage demands. 

Then, there is the trifecta of inflation that I use, which stems from the price direction of hard assets. 

This is a trader’s perspective. Keep these in your mind! 

1. Weakening   
2. outperforming (i.e. silver gaining vs. gold, which implies rising inflation pressure)  
3. “busting out” (sharp rise in sugar futures / prices as a food-staple inflation signal) 

The US dollar has declined ~10% in 2025. This tends to fuel import inflation and asset-price inflation (commodities, precious metals) in dollar terms. 

Both the gold chart (now on new highs) and the decline in the dollar well supports my trifecta. 

In 2025 so far, silver has outpaced in returns. 

The strength of this ratio indicator, as part of the trifecta, supports inflation expectations, especially when paired with dollar weakness. 

As for fuel, lets look at ) and … 

Instead of rising, sugar prices are down: as of September 2025.  

Sugar has fallen ~16.99% year-over-year. 

The sugar leg does not confirm my inflation signal.

However, because sugar is more volatile and sensitive to weather, a future reversal could still flip that leg later.

I am adding oil as a fuel, which can also be said about sugar, both as a biofuel and as a food additive. 

In my “trifecta of inflation,” oil isn’t one of the three signature tells (dollar, silver/gold, sugar), but it acts as a shadow driver: 

• Strengthens the cost-push inflation leg. 
• Reinforces the weak dollar + commodity surge loop. 
• Influences consumer inflation psychology. 

have been volatile, swinging with OPEC+ supply decisions, U.S. shale output, and Middle East risks. 

Even when not spiking, the threat of oil shocks adds to the inflation premium in markets. 

If oil sustains above ~$90,100/barrel, it would re-ignite broad inflation fears 

The takeaway:  

With two of my three indicators signaling and oil acting as a reinforcing fourth, inflation risks remain elevated even without sugar’s confirmation. 

If sugar joins the rally alongside oil, the market should brace for a stickier, multi-sourced inflation cycle that echoes past inflationary eras — and challenges the easing narrative. 

ETF Summary  

(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)  

S&P 500 (SPY) 654.41 last week’s low 664 near term support 

Russell 2000 (IWM) 237.50 last week’s low  

Dow (DIA) 457.50 last week’s low. 462 near-term support 

Nasdaq (QQQ) 588.50 last week’s low 663 near term support 

Regional banks (KRE) Warning Phase-should be watched   

Semiconductors (SMH) 322 support  

Transportation (IYT) 70 huge support Thru 73 interesting 

Biotechnology (IBB) 143 now support 

Retail (XRT) 87 now resistance 84 support 

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Back in an unconfirmed bullish phase with 113,800 support 

Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.