Yes, you read that correctly. (BTC) is boring. But why? It is supposedly an exciting, new technology and payment system that can solve many problems surrounding regular currencies. I am not talking about Bitcoin’s value but how its price has behaved since the Bear Market low in November 2022.
Namely, back in October 2023, we shared that Bitcoin has a four-year cycle, comprising three Bullish years and one Bearish year, which are the four phases of Bitcoin. See . Currently, it should be in its last Bullish phase/year.
Before we go to the bigger picture, you may have noticed that BTC has been stuck in a $14K range since November last year: $92-106K. Yesterday, it tagged that lower level once again and bounced strongly. See the red box in Figure 1 below.
Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear and Greed Indicator registered its lowest reading since October last year: 44. Readings below 50 often coincide with significant bottoms. See Figure 2 below. All while, BTC was technically still range-bound and retesting its November, December, and January lows. Thus, while many panicked, BTC staged a rally, completed a bullish reversal candle, and is back in the middle of the $92-106K range: $99K.
If we zoom out back to the November 2022 low, we can observe that Bitcoin has, believe it or not, mostly been range-bound. See Figure 3 below. Since that low, BTC has been stuck in six different ranges, including the current one. These ranges lasted anywhere from two to nine months: black rectangles. The time it spent rallying, measured as a breakout from the previous range to the top of the following range, has only been six months: green rectangles.
Therefore, BTC has technically only rallied 25% of the time since its November 2022 low and has been range-bound 75% over that period. So yes, technically speaking, Bitcoin is boring. Not much will happen for a long time until it will rally quickly to the next zone. Although only time will tell if yesterday’s panic reading was warranted, for now, BTC is back to being boring: inside the $92-106K range.
A breakout will target ~$120K based on simple symmetry: $106-92+$106=$120K, while our current Elliott wave count has a target zone of $117-125K based on the confluence of several different wave degrees. Conversely, a breakdown below $92K and especially $89K can induce a waterfall decline back to the top of the previous range zone: $70K. However, based on the last five basing patterns, we must expect a breakout.
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