‘Strongman’ leaders of Europe don’t look so strong anymore

So-called “strongman” leaders of Europe — most of whom are allied with the likes of U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin — look increasingly weak, analysts say, with their popularity waning ahead of key elections.

Trump’s inauguration was expected to give a shot in the arm to nationalist-populist leaders and parties such as Hungary’s Viktor Orban, Slovakia’s Robert Fico, Germany’s right-wing AfD party and Marine Le Pen and her National Rally party in France. But such a boost is not a foregone conclusion, as domestic pressures and economic challenges weigh on their popularity and power.

“The re-election of Donald Trump for a second term in the U.S. had seemed to be a clarion call for a structural political shift towards similarly populist, MAGA style movements across Europe,” Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets strategist at RBC Bluebay Asset Management, said in emailed comments Thursday. MAGA refers to “Make America Great Again” — a slogan that has historically underpinned Trump’s nationalist campaign.

“Actually what we are seeing is a somewhat mixed picture across Europe, and actually with many of Trump’s apostles being on the back foot,” Ash said.

The leaders of Hungary and Slovakia – President Viktor Orban and Prime Minister Robert Fico – are often classed as being of the “strongman” variety and akin to President Putin, with whom they have continued to have warm relations since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Though European Union members, both countries have pushed back against the bloc’s initiatives to cut ties with Moscow, such as reducing imports of Russian gas and oil. The nations have instead opted to maintain supplies amid fears of mounting energy costs at home.

Both leaders have also been vocally critical of giving more military and financial assistance to Ukraine and have threatened to refuse to back an extension of sanctions on Russia although, last Monday, Orban backed down from that position after being given energy security assurances by the bloc.

Orban and Fico are seeing dwindling popularity ratings at home and rising dissatisfaction with their leadership among the public and in parliament. Orban’s poll ratings have been falling, while those of his main political rival Péter Magyar have been on the rise. Fico, meanwhile, narrowly avoided a vote of no confidence motion in January after his political opponents abandoned the move.

Both men could face defeat at the ballot box in the near-future, analysts say, with parliamentary elections due to be held next year in Hungary and in 2027 in Slovakia, although a vote could take place earlier.

“The future of Fico’s government is increasingly uncertain due to a slim parliamentary majority, which is further threatened by disagreements among governing coalition parties as well as Fico’s increasingly erratic rhetoric and behavior,” Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe advisor at risk consultancy Teneo, said in emailed comments.

“Fico himself has mentioned the possibility of an early parliamentary election in the spring unless his coalition partners resolve internal differences,” he added.

Hungary’s Orban is under increasing domestic pressure this year, with the rapid increase in popularity of opposition leader Peter Magyar and his Tisza Party, indicating that the anti-EU populist could lose the 2026 election.

Polling from November showed Tisza with 35%-45% support among decided voters — about four to six percentage points ahead of Orban’s Fidesz party, Eurasia Group noted.

“Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban will face his most significant constraints since taking office in 2010 … This will further undermine his ability to hijack—let alone drive—the EU’s agenda as the bloc’s preeminent populist leader,” analysts at the political risk consultancy said in a note in January.

Eurasia Group said Orban and Fidesz would likely continue to attack Magyar’s credibility and could pursue fiscal easing aimed to bolster the support of Fidesz’s core voter groups.

“This, however, will happen against the backdrop of a weakening economy, a situation the EU is exploiting by withholding funds and further augmenting investors’ concerns. These conditions are also causing Orban to be more financially dependent on China at a time when Trump is likely to push the EU toward a U.S.-style decoupling,” they noted.

Populist parties across the EU have gained significantly in popularity over the last decade, with the rise in prominence of Germany’s AfD party and France’s National Rally — both of which, after undeniable electoral successes, now wield considerable influence over the respective policy directions of their national governments.

Euroskepticism and anti-immigration sentiment was largely fueled by public dissatisfaction with the EU’s response to undocumented migration to the continent.

Forthcoming elections in Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic could see populist anti-EU parties gain more ground this year, but anti-EU governments will remain well short of the blocking minority needed in the European Council to seriously upset EU decision-making, Eurasia Group noted:

“Where they are in government, they have tended to shift toward the political center, with the notable exception of Hungary. Much of the far right’s prospects will therefore depend on whether governments can find more effective ways to deal with the slow-burning migration crisis that is the strongest driver of populist support in the EU,” analysts said.