Windsor, Ontario, Canadian Automotive Capital, Braces for Trump Tariffs

After about a week of conflicting signals, the new Trump administration announced that the long-threatened 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico would take effect on Saturday, the first salvo of what is expected to be a trade war between the allies.

[Read: Trump Will Hit Mexico, Canada and China With Tariffs]

When Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, confirmed the timing on Friday, she repeated President Trump’s claim that Canada and Mexico were not blocking the flow of migrants and fentanyl across the border. But Vjosa Isai, my colleague based in Toronto, has looked into the fentanyl trade in Canada and found that by any measure its effect on the United States is minimal — nothing like the flow of illegal drugs into Canada from the United States.

[Read: Trump Calls Canada a Big Player in the Fentanyl Trade. Is It?]

Similarly, Canadian officials have argued that significantly fewer migrants cross into the United States through Canada than through Mexico, and that even so, Canada has taken steps to increase border security.

Nevertheless, the tariffs are here. Many questions remain unanswered, including whether Canadian oil will be exempted. More broadly, though, what does Mr. Trump want to achieve?

My colleagues Ana Swanson and Alan Rappeport, who reported from Washington about Mr. Trump’s trade battles during his first term in office, write: “Mr. Trump has long wielded tariffs as a weapon to resolve trade concerns. But the president is now frequently using them to make gains on issues that have little to do with trade.”

[Read: Trump Threatens Tariffs Over Immigration, Drugs and Greenland]

While no place in Canada will be untouched by the tariffs, few places will be as profoundly affected as Windsor, Ontario, my hometown. Sitting directly across the river from Detroit, the city’s economy is entwined with the North American auto industry.

For the second time in the past few weeks, I’m on assignment in Windsor with Ian Willms, a Toronto-based photographer. On Friday, we met with Drew Dilkens, the city’s mayor.

[In case you missed it: In Canada’s ‘Suburb of Detroit,’ Fears Over Trump’s Tariff Threat]

Our conversation has been condensed for space and edited for clarity.

What will be the effect of tariffs on your city?

I’m not going to paint another picture than it being completely catastrophic if there’s a 25 percent tariff. When the cannon is aimed directly at the auto industry or the parts sector, that is life-altering for a lot of families here.

But the impact will also be felt on the other side of the border as well.

This trade war will have casualties on all sides. There’s no winner here. If it’s about America First and saying we’re going to bring all these jobs back to the United States — I think it’s a pipe dream. We’ve built an integrated economy with Mexico, Canada and the United States that has proven to create a lot of jobs in all three countries.

Is there not a danger, however, that Canadian companies will simply move across the border to maintain access to the U.S. market?

You may be able to bring a plastic injection mold over to a facility in the United States. But to think that you’re going to repatriate the entire auto parts sector, it ain’t going to happen. It’s going to take a lot longer than I think the president expects.

Is this city, any city, prepared to deal with disruption from tariffs?

The feds and provinces will have to step up. The relief that will be required will be analogous to Covid-style relief: billions of dollars to help people get by until these issues can be resolved.

What will it take to satisfy Mr. Trump and have tariffs lifted?

Everyone here is just trying to figure out what the endgame is. Is the endgame better border security? Better control of illegal drugs moving back and forth between the two countries? Is it an early renegotiation of U.S.M.C.A. trade pact, or is it something else? The uncertainty of that question really puts everyone on edge and makes them not sure how to react. The uncertainty is what kills everybody.

Windsor has a lot of ties across the border. How is Mr. Trump’s suggestion that Canada join the U.S. going over here?

There’s a strong amount of Canadian pride in the city of Windsor, even though we’re so geographically close to the United States. If you grab anyone in Detroit right now, literally a kilometer and a half away, and put them together with anybody in Windsor, you will see how different their language, their accents are.

The “51st state” comment — people here don’t really appreciate it. We see ourselves as a sovereign nation, very proud Canadians.

Trans Canada

This section was compiled by Vjosa Isai.

• In Thunder Bay, Ontario, an expansive art fraud copying the works of the Indigenous painter Norval Morrisseau was cracked after a series of unusual events involving a rock star and a cold-case murder.

• Prime Minister Justin Trudeau won voters’ support with his promise to make life more affordable for the middle class, but after his almost 10 years in power, inflation has created deep discontent.

• A public inquiry on foreign interference delivered its final report, concluding that Mr. Trudeau should have acted quicker to protect elections from outside meddling.

• A Toronto man is suing an all-inclusive resort in the Dominican Republic and related tour companies after the deaths of his wife and their 8-year-old son, who became ill with food poisoning at the resort.

• Paleontologists in Alberta discovered one of only four fossils found around the world that seem to indicate pterosaurs, despite their imposing size, were victims of other predator dinosaurs.

• Gary He, a photographer based in New York, documented the global McDonald’s experience, including regional menu items like poutine in Canada, in a new book.

• The Canadian comedian Tom Green is returning to the spotlight.

• A Canadian cargo ship was finally dislodged last week after being stuck in ice on Lake Erie for three days.

Ian Austen reports on Canada for The Times based in Ottawa. He covers politics, culture and the people of Canada and has reported on the country for two decades. He can be reached at [email protected]. More about Ian Austen

How are we doing?
We’re eager to have your thoughts about this newsletter and events in Canada in general. Please send them to [email protected].

Like this email?
Forward it to your friends, and let them know they can sign up here.