Early spring or more winter? Meteorologist’s 2025 prediction for NYC

The Brief

• Can New York City expect six more weeks of winter – or early spring?

• FOX 5 NY Meteorologist Nick Gregory is breaking down his 2025 mid-winter weather outlook.

• Gregory discusses what to expect for the rest of winter, including how many more inches of snow we’ll record.

NEW YORK CITY – Can New York City expect six more weeks of winter – or early spring?

In his 2025 mid-winter weather outlook ahead of Groundhog Day on Sunday, FOX 5 NY Meteorologist Nick Gregory breaks down what to expect for the rest of winter, including how many more inches of snow we’ll record and what the beginning of spring has in store.

He covers:

NYC winter so far

By the numbers

Gregory says December temperatures were just “a touch below average”, but pretty close to where the Big Apple should be at this point. As far as snow goes, New York City has seen:

• December: 2.8″ / Average is 4.9″

• January: 3.0″ / Average is 7.3″

• Total: 5.8″ / Average is 12.2″

How much snow can we expect for the remainder of the winter?

Local perspective

By February, New York City normally records about 14 inches of snow, so we’re still a little behind. But snow lovers – Nick’s got news for you.

Before the winter is over, Gregory still expects around 7-12″ more of snow for parts of South Jersey, New York City and Long Island.

“As we go through the next month or two, we’ll still see an active northern jet stream, bringing storms from time to time that could regenerate along the coast, and that’s where we get into that potential snowstorm or rain/snow event for the city and more snow that will be happening as you move further inland,” Gregory said.

Meanwhile, parts of North Jersey, Hudson Valley and Connecticut could see 12-17″ more of snow.

“Further north, I think you’re still going to see those higher amounts of snow as we go into the forecast,” Gregory said.

When is the first day of spring? What’s your spring 2025 outlook?

What’s next

Spring officially begins on March 20 at 5:01 a.m.

Gregory says the spring forecast will be warmer than average, but “probably near average as we get into precipitation.” The first 60-degree day of the year usually lands on April 10 for us. (Fingers crossed we see one sooner than that!)

We shall see if the groundhog sees his shadow or not. (Gregory predicts he will see his shadow)

How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?

Dig deeper

In determining the accuracy of Punxsutawney Phil, NOAA compared national temperatures in the six weeks after Feb. 2 over the last 10 years.

According to the data, Phil got it right last year in 2024, calling for an early spring. But over the last 10 years, the groundhog has been correct only two other times: 2020 and 2015, resulting in an accuracy rate of 30%.

According to NOAA since 1887, Phil has predicted more winter 107 times, and an early spring just 20 times, with 10 years without recorded data.

The Stormfax Almanac website, which claims to have tracked Phil’s predictions since 1887, found that Punxsutawney Phil’s overall accuracy to be 39%.

Will Punxsutawney Phil be right this year?

As for 2025, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction center is forecasting above average temperatures across the southern part of the country in the week after Groundhog Day, while average and slightly colder than average temperatures will stick around for the northern tier.

So, for New York City, that means Phil shouldn’t see his shadow in order to match his prediction with climatologists.

February is also bringing a weather pattern change. According to the FOX Forecast Center, a westward shift in the jet stream will allow warmer temperatures from the Gulf to spread across the eastern half of the country.