Canada’s population could reach 80M in 50 years, despite immigration cut: report

Canada’s population will grow over the years regardless of the federal government’s recent decision to slash immigration rates, a new report shows.

Statistics Canada released new projection figures Tuesday that factor in Ottawa’s October announcement that it would be reducing the number of permanent residents admitted to the country by 21 per cent in 2025.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said at the time the goal was to pause population growth over the next two years to ease pressures the economy has been facing, such as in housing and infrastructure.

A “substantial reduction” in the number of permanent residents, as well as a decrease in non-permanent residents, would result in much lower population growth than that recorded in 2022 and 2023, Statistics Canada said.

The population would even decrease slightly from 2025 to 2026, but in all three of its scenarios released Tuesday, Statistics Canada said migratory increase would be the key driver of population growth over the next 50 years.

“According to the projection scenarios, the Canadian population, estimated at 40.3 million in 2024, would continue to grow in the coming decades to reach between 45.2 million (low-growth scenario) and 80.8 million (high-growth scenario) by 2074,” the agency said.

“According to the medium-growth scenario, the Canadian population would reach 59.3 million in 2074.”

The report also offered projections for how each province and territory’s population would change from now to 2049. Aside from the changes in immigration policy, Statistics Canada said it used fertility, mortality and international and interprovincial migration rates to determine its projections.

It said all of its scenarios show an increase in the demographic weight of Alberta, while some show a decrease in Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec and the Northwest Territories from 2024 to 2049. Elsewhere, results vary, mainly depending on interprovincial migration assumptions.

For example, Statistics Canada said the demographic weight of Atlantic provinces, other than Newfoundland, could increase from 2024 to 2049 if recent trends continue.

Newfoundland would only see an increase in Statistics Canada’s high-growth scenario – a 1.1 per cent jump when compared to its 2024 population – 545,247 people. In a low-growth scenario, Newfoundland’s population would shrink by 16.1 per cent, Statistics Canada projects.

In a low-growth scenario, Quebec would see a three per cent decrease in population by 2049 – 8,786,400 compared to 9,056,044 in 2024 – Statistics Canada said.

In a medium growth scenario, Quebec’s population would actually increase as high as 7.4 per cent. The province’s population would soar by 19.8 per cent in a high-growth scenario.

Meanwhile, neighbouring Ontario would see a population increase in all situations, ranging from 5.7 per cent in a low-growth scenario and 38.7 per cent in a high-growth scenario.

Ontario’s population last year was estimated to be 16,124,116.

Like Ontario, Manitoba, which had an estimated population of 1,494,301 in 2024, would also see a population increase in all scenarios, Statistics Canada projected.

In a low-growth scenario, the province’s population would jump by 3.3 per cent, while it would increase by 35.8 per cent in a high-growth situation.

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Saskatchewan is in the same boat: a 6.3 per cent increase in a low-growth scenario by 2049, and a 38.9 per cent jump in a high-growth case.

Saskatchewan’s population was estimated to be 1,239,865 in 2024.

Alberta will see the biggest jump in population among all jurisdictions in all scenarios, Statistics Canada revealed.

Its population has already been increasing, with the figure coming in at 4,888,723 in 2024. In a low-growth scenario, Alberta’s population would jump by 24.9 per cent. In a high-growth scenario, that figure would soar to 56.1 per cent.

British Columbia would also see a jump, but not like Alberta.

The province, which had 5,698,430 people in 2024, could see a 6.7 per cent spike come 2049 in a low-growth scenario. In a situation where growth is high, its population would grow by 39.9 per cent, Statistics Canada said.

Of the three territories, the Northwest Territories would be the only region that could see a decrease in population under one of the three scenarios.

In Statistics Canada’s low-growth projection, the Northwest Territories would see its 2024 population of 44,731 people shrink by nine per cent by 2049. The territory’s population would grow by 14.7 per cent in a high-growth scenario.

Nunavut, which had 41,159 people in 2024, would see its population jump 10.5 per cent by 2049 in a low-growth scenario, and 33.9 per cent in a high-growth scenario.

Finally, Yukon would see a 7.7 per cent jump by 2049 in a low growth scenario, and a 32.1 per cent increase in a high-growth scenario. Its population in 2024 was 46,704.