NOAA’s Latest Winter Forecast Is Good News for PNW Skiers

Each month, NOAA updates its seasonal outlooks—broad, months-long predictions that assess the odds of precipitation and temperature outcomes across the U.S. This month’s update was released today, October 17, 2024, and as far as prospective skiing conditions go, states across the Northwestern corner of the country appear to be the frontrunners.

For the upcoming period, November-December-January, a bullseye of precipitation trending towards above average sits over Washington, parts of Oregon, the Idaho Panhandle, and portions of Montana, which, on its own, could spell increased snowfall.

However, NOAA predicts “equal chances” of above, below, or near average temperatures in this region, so freezing levels are more of a toss-up. Outside of this area, much of the rest of the country is slated for above-average temperatures.

Things lean more in the Northwest’s favor across the next period: December-January-February. Here, NOAA is eyeing both below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation—a combination that, if it pans out, could create more favorable skiing conditions in Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and Montana.

The temperature and precipitation outlooks elsewhere are less promising, with the dice loaded towards above-average temperatures throughout the Northeast. Portions of Colorado and almost all of Utah are in the orange, indicating temperatures skewed towards above-average.

Bear in mind that NOAA’s monthly and seasonal outlooks are not weather forecasts. They don’t predict specific storms and shouldn’t be treated as a powder skiing guarantee. Instead, they aim to determine the most likely outcome—”above-average, near-average, or below-average monthly mean temperature or total precipitation”—across a given period.

Potent winter storm cycles are still possible in areas with a higher likelihood of above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation. NOAA itself writes, “The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.”

Another note: darker color blotches on these maps don’t mean increasingly extreme cold or warm conditions are predicted. The same goes for precipitation. Instead, they indicate that the odds of a departure from the average are higher. For instance, those dark reds don’t spell the arrival of brutally warm temperatures, just that it’ll probably be warmer than average during the months indicated. This graph breaks down that concept further.

All told, NOAA’s latest seasonal outlooks are pointing towards—but not promising—colder and wetter conditions in the Northwest. That aligns with the anticipated La Nina, which often produces a more northerly winter storm track.

Related: Warmer Than Average Winter Forecasted for Most of U.S.

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