Time not on Labor’s side in territory election battle

Andrew Barr is one of the great survivors of Australian politics.

The 51-year-old has outlasted three prime ministers and every other COVID-era state and territory leader on the way to setting the record as the ACT’s longest-serving chief minister.

“It was undoubtedly the most demanding period of political leadership in Australia, certainly this century and probably outside of wartime,” he told AAP.

Whereas other leaders became burnt-out or lost the support of the electorate, Mr Barr’s role steering Canberra through the pandemic is still earning him plaudits.

“He did very good during the COVID period,” confides Nagesh Kore, a voter in Mr Barr’s electorate of Kurrajong.

But as he seeks his third election victory in the role on Saturday, the ACT Labor leader’s “forever government”, as described by ABC election guru Antony Green, could be losing its lustre.

“I reckon Barr’s just had long enough,” said Lauren, another Kurrajong voter.

After 23 years of Labor government – the past 16 in a coalition with the Greens – concerns over high rates, a buckling health system and a mounting budget deficit are weighing on Mr Barr.

The Liberals appear to have finally found a palatable leader yet in moderate Elizabeth Lee, whose position on issues such as voluntary assisted dying better align with the progressive views of the electorate than her conservative predecessors.

Ms Lee, along with Mr Barr and Greens leader Shane Rattenbury, are part of a crowded field vying for the five seats up for grabs in Kurrajong, which covers much of Canberra’s centre, including the Australian National University and the trendy inner north.

Her promises, including capping rates, releasing more residential land on Canberra’s outer fringes and increasing elective surgeries, were enough to earn Lauren’s vote.

“I feel like if the Libs are ever gonna get up and we’ll see some change they’ve got a pretty strong chance at the moment,” she told AAP at an early voting centre in the leafy inner-south suburb of Manuka.

Canberra is a transient city and territory-level politics can sometimes slip under the radar, with so many short-term residents attracted to the region by the federal public service or its high-ranking universities disengaged from local issues.

But the campaign was thrust into the national spotlight on Wednesday when Ms Lee was captured on camera giving the finger to a local journalist after a fiery exchange between the pair at a news conference.

“Loved it, that’s what sort of tipped me over the edge,” Lauren said.

“If you’ve got the balls to flip the bird knowing there’s all these cameras on you, go for it.”

Ms Lee apologised for her gesture, but said she had earned a lot of positive feedback from women who were aggrieved at being “talked over, mansplained or interjected” and felt she was standing up for them too.

Without opinion polling in the ACT, its difficult to tell if Ms Lee’s tactics are working.

Militating against her is the fact that Canberra is a naturally left-leaning town, with Labor holding all three federal electorates by a margin of more than 12 per cent.

“The Labor party has been in power for a long time, and that could potentially mean that people are looking for somewhere else to go, but I don’t really think that’s going to be enough for the (Labor-Greens) government to lose its majority,” said political analyst Ben Raue, author of the Tally Room website.

“It’s all very vibes-based about, ‘Well, people must be sick of the Labor Party because they’ve been in power for a quarter of a century’.

“Well, maybe, but it’s a progressive city.”