3 elections, 3 provinces, 10 days: What’s at stake in these Canadian races

It’s a busy month in provincial politics, as voters in three provinces get set to head to the polls.

British Columbia, New Brunswick and Saskatchewan all have general elections within a 10-day period.

In B.C., the incumbent New Democratic Party led by David Eby is seeking a record third consecutive term.

Two days later, New Brunswick Progressive Conservative Leader Blaine Higgs is seeking a third term as premier, after fracture within his party over the handling of an LGBTQ2 policy in schools.

And in Saskatchewan, Scott Moe is trying to hold on to power after six years as premier — and coming off 17 straight years with a conservative SaskParty government.

Several polls have found that the chief challenge for incumbent premiers will be overcoming a desire many voters have for political change.

Global News chief political correspondent David Akin says it appears voters are tiring of the political status quo in these provinces, and the conservative parties in all three races are employing a similar tactic against their progressive opponents.

In fact, Akin says, conservative parties everywhere want to make Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a ballot question.

Saskatchewan Party campaign material argues Trudeau would prefer Carla Beck’s NDP, while the BC Conservatives blame what they call the Trudeau-Eby alliance for the province’s woes.

Higgs’ PC Party in New Brunswick has also tried to tie Liberal Leader Susan Holt to the prime minister, claiming in an election ad that “we really can’t afford another Trudeau Liberal.”

“But weaponizing Trudeau is no guarantee of success,” Akin says. “Last year, the Manitoba PCs tried to pin Trudeau to their progressive opponent and saw New Democrat Wab Kinew win a majority government.”

Here’s a look at what each province is facing.

British Columbia – Saturday, Oct. 19

The B.C. election is promising to be an interesting one, with a potentially tight three-way race between the BC NDP, the BC Conservatives and the BC Greens.

In early September, BC United Leader Kevin Falcon announced he was withdrawing the party’s candidate nominations and instead urging support for the Conservatives to prevent a vote split that would help the New Democrats win re-election.

As a result of this announcement, some previous BC United candidates are now running as independents in this election.

In addition, many voters saw their ridings change in this upcoming provincial election.

Following the 2020 provincial election, the Electoral Boundaries Commission was required to complete a redistribution of seats.

After the final report was released, an act was passed in 2023 to increase seats in the B.C. legislature from 87 to 93. This includes four new ridings in the Lower Mainland, one on Vancouver Island and one in the Interior.

In addition, 72 ridings had their boundaries adjusted. Forty-one ridings had their names changed.

This election, the BC Conservatives are hoping to flip a number of ridings, especially those that went NDP in 2020.

Mike McDonald, chief of staff for former BC Liberal premier Christy Clark and co-host of the Hotel Pacifico podcast on the province’s political scene, said there are “always a few ridings that surprise you” but this year’s realignment of both ridings and parties adds even more volatility.

“In this election, the public polls are telling us it’s going to be much tighter (than the 2020 election), at least so far,” McDonald said of the popular vote. “And so, if we were single-digit margin on the popular vote provincewide — say, less than five per cent difference — then you’re going to see a lot of those NDP seats that were won in 2020 fall by the wayside.”

New Brunswick – Monday, Oct. 21

Progressive Conservative Leader Blaine Higgs is seeking a third term as premier, after months of criticism and fracture within his own party.

The dissent came from his government’s changes to Policy 713, which covers gender identity in schools.

The new rules require students to get parental consent before teachers can use their preferred names and pronouns. Several members — including cabinet ministers — publicly spoke out against Higgs’ leadership over the file, leading the premier to the precipice of calling an early election.

The early vote didn’t happen, but a wave of resignations did, leaving Higgs scrambling to fill cabinet positions and defending against accusations his party was a sinking ship.

Higgs told reporters after calling the election on Sept. 19 that his government had reduced provincial debt, had record spending on health care, and brought in more doctors and collaborative care centres — and that the PCs “want the opportunity to finish the job.”

Meanwhile, Liberal Leader Susan Holt has been edging out Higgs in opinion polls, by a small margin. Her party has vowed to implement a three per cent cap on rent increases by 2025 and construct 30,000 housing units by 2030.

She also said on the campaign trail that, if her party is elected, teachers will no longer need parental consent before they can use the preferred first names and pronouns of transgender students under 16.

David Coon’s Green Party has promised to implement a guaranteed livable income by the end of a four-year mandate, in partnership with the federal government. Coon has also said his party would invest $380 million annually to fix the primary health-care system.

Voters have identified health care, housing and affordability as main election topics.

Grant Jordan, who suffered a heart attack in the parking lot of his rural hospital because he arrived 18 minutes after the ER closed, told Global News he’s heard plenty of other “horror stories” since his ordeal. Health care will weigh heavily on his mind when he votes — because he wants to see something done.

“Rents have doubled and there’s no housing, nowhere for anybody to live. Price of food has doubled everywhere. We’ve got all the same issues everybody else does, except we don’t have a hospital that we can depend on. And we should,” he said.

For renters like Karlie Rheaume, protections for renters and a possible rent cap are top of mind. Rheaume was renovicted from a previous apartment, but then found that same unit listed at almost double the rent a month later.

Coupled with the struggle to find a new place to live, Rheaume considered leaving the province altogether.

“I’m so exhausted from finding a place, from the province not helping me out, which is definitely going to affect my vote because where was the protections for Canadians that need it?”

Both the Liberals and Greens have promised to implement a rent cap if elected. The Tories, however, have stated that they won’t bring in a rent cap because of potential “unintended consequences.”

Saskatchewan – Oct. 28

Saskatchewan is coming off 17 straight years with a conservative SaskParty in power. For the last six years, Scott Moe has been the premier.

While recent polls show the NDP and leader Carla Beck have made progress in popularity, the election will come down to whether or not the NDP can steal seats outside the major cities as rural ridings have been dominated by the SaskParty over the last few decades.

Moe took over as leader after former premier Brad Wall retired, and won his first mandate in the 2020 election during the COVID-19 pandemic. He has feuded with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals over the carbon levy and natural resource policies.

His pre-election budget forecasted a $354-million deficit.

As for the hot topic issues, health care, education and the controversial carbon price have been the focus of discussion.

Coming out of the pandemic, Saskatchewan’s health-care system is in desperate need of help, according to many nurses in the province.

“How do you safely care for patients in a busy emergency room when you are routinely 200 per cent over-capacity, beds line hallways, and critical care happens out in the open in waiting room chairs, all while you are working seven registered nurses short?” Saskatchewan Union of Nurses (SUN) president Tracy Zambory asked.

“But it’s not only big city emergencies; patients are suffering everywhere — postponed surgeries, excessive and stressful waits for life-saving diagnostics and treatments, and widespread rural service disruptions.”

When it comes to education, the provincial government has found itself in a fight with teachers across the province for almost a year. The Saskatchewan Teachers’ Federation has been in search of a new deal, and when bargaining continued to fall through, teachers hit the picket lines and cut extracurriculars in schools.

“Education is a key issue for elections this fall, and we want everyone to know just how much their vote impacts Saskatchewan’s students,” Saskatchewan Teachers’ Federation president Samantha Becotte said.

Binding arbitration is set for November, but many residents Global News spoke to say education is one of the biggest things that could sway their vote. The NDP has announced major education funding with an additional $2 billion over the next four years.

Finally, the SaskParty government has been the focus of controversy over the last few years with multiple caucus members facing criminal charges and conflict of interest investigations.

Perhaps most notably, the trade and export development minister, Jeremy Harrison, has been accused of bringing a gun into the legislature and bullying the Speaker.

What started with 48 members holding seats in 2020 has dropped to 42 at dissolution. Sixteen of those members are not running again, including eight who served in Moe’s cabinet over the last four years.

— with files from The Canadian Press and Global News’ David Akin