September’s jobs report changes the calculus

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

Monster jobs report
The U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September, according to the U.S. Labor Department. That figure smashes the expected 150,000 Dow Jones consensus forecast and is far higher than the upwardly revised 159,000 in August. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2% the month before. Those numbers suggest a recession’s unlikely.

Reversing losses
Major U.S. indexes rose Friday, erasing the previous four days’ of losses to close the week higher. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury added around 12 basis points, almost hitting 4%. Asia-Pacific markets advanced Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 led the pack, gaining around 2.2% amid the yen tumbling to below 149 against the U.S. dollar during the day.

Rio Tinto eyeing Arcadium
The world’s second-largest mining company Rio Tinto expressed interest in acquiring U.S. lithium producer Arcadium, the two companies confirmed in separate statements on Monday. The deal is still tentative and might not go through, said Rio Tinto. But if it does, Rio Tinto would become the third-biggest lithium supplier in the world.

Starboard Value eyeing Pfizer
Activist investor Starboard Value has an approximately $1 billion stake in Pfizer and wants to turn around the pharmaceutical company, according to people familiar with the matter. Starboard has approached Pfizer ex-CEO Ian Read and former finance chief Frank D’Amelio to be on board with its plans, said the sources.

[PRO] ‘Next dragon in Asia’
Asian countries like India and Japan have drawn interest over the past year, thanks to the steady performance of their stock markets. And China has reclaimed the spotlight after the country unleashed a raft of economic stimulus last week, causing Chinese stocks to surge. But one fund manager thinks the “next dragon in Asia” isn’t any of those countries.

Oh, to be a fly on the wall when the U.S. Labor Department arrived at the final tally for September’s jobs number. I imagine a harried official yelling, “Did someone use PRODUCT instead of SUM in Excel?”

Because it seems only a confusion between the multiplication and addition functions could lead us to the completely unexpected number of 254,000 nonfarm payrolls added in September — around 70% higher than what economists had expected.

By comparison, August’s number was only 12% off the estimate, and even July’s hugely disappointing report, which sparked the sell-off in early August, was “merely” 37% lower than forecast.

It’s likely the Fed was also caught off guard. “It is doubtful” the Fed would have slashed rates by half a percentage point “if it had known this report would be so strong,” said David Royal, chief financial and investment officer at financial services firm Thrivent.

Indeed, the report demolished expectations so thoroughly it calls into question assumptions and models about the economy. That’s perhaps why stocks rose only tentatively on its release.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.9%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.81% and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.22%.

Still, those numbers were big enough they erased the losses of the previous four trading days. For the week, S&P rose 0.22%, the Dow ticked up 0.09% and the Nasdaq increased 0.1% — a huge jump, considering it was down more than 1% at Thursday’s close.

Perhaps markets’ measured response on Friday was muted because the jobs report, while reaffirming a recession is a ghost banished for now, almost guarantees the Fed will reduce rates by a quarter point — at most — during its November meeting.

There’s no need to be a fly on the wall when the Fed discusses rates. They release minutes of their meeting, anyway. Jobs data is so crucial to the economy now I’d continue buzzing around the Labor Department’s office.

– CNBC’s Jeff Cox, Alex Harring and Lisa Kailai Han contributed to this story.