Markets on tenterhooks ahead of key US jobs data

Asian shares clung to tight ranges and the dollar nursed losses on Friday, with investors on tenterhooks ahead of US jobs data that could decide the size and speed of coming rate cuts in the world’s largest economy.

As of now, oil prices are staring down their worst week in more than a year to hover just above a critical chart level, with their near-term fate depending on the payrolls report due later in the day.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged 0.2 per cent higher, having fallen 2.3 per cent so far this week. The Nikkei slipped 0.1 per cent to be down 3.9 per cent for the week.

China’s sharemarkets opened mixed, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was flat.

The nervous markets, however, knocked the Nasdaq futures down 0.6 per cent while S&P futures slipped 0.3 per cent.

The Japanese yen is vulnerable to a sharp pull-back after its 2.0 per cent rally this week and was last 0.1 per cent higher at 143.27 per dollar.

There is a lot riding on the US non-farm payrolls report after the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers do not welcome any further weakening in the labour market, laying the ground for a September rate cut.

Analysts are looking for a rise of 165,000 in new jobs and a dip in the unemployment rate to 4.2 per cent.

However, risks are now to the downside after soft job openings and fewer job gains in the private sector led markets to ramp up the chance of a half-point cut from the Fed to 42 per cent this month.

Influential Fed governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams will be speaking after the jobs data, giving the market a near-instant reaction.

Analysts at ING said even if the payrolls come in line with expectations, markets might still scale back the chance of a 50 basis point cut.

“We suspect the market is actually positioned for a sub-100k number. If we don’t get that type of validation for material slowdown, yields will be under pressure to rise for a bit,” said Padhraic Garvey, regional head of research, Americas, at ING.

Bonds rallied earlier in the week, although gains could quickly reverse depending on the payrolls data. Two-year Treasury yields fell 17 basis points so far this week to 3.7520 per cent, the lowest since early 2023.

Ten-year yields were down 18 bps to 3.7330 per cent, with the spread over two years on the verge of turning positive.

Oil is facing the worst week since October 2023 as demand worries weighed against a big withdrawal from US inventories and a delay to output increases by OPEC+ producers.

The supply issues failed to elicit a jump in crude prices. Brent crude futures steadied on Friday, up 0.2 per cent to $US72.8 ($A108.0) a barrel, but were down 7.6 per cent so far in the week.

They were pinned near a key range of $US70 ($A104) to $US71 ($A105), a break of which would open the way to levels not seen since late 2021.

Gold was flat at $US2,514 ($A3,731) an ounce, just a touch below its record high.

In deals news, Japanese retail giant Seven & i Holdings said on Friday it had rejected Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard’s $US38.5 billion ($A57.1 billion) cash bid for the company because the proposal was not in the interest of shareholders.