If you’re interested in the modern six-digit references with the Cerachom (ceramic) bezel inserts and updated movements, you’ll be pleased to learn that the Rolex Submariner reference 124060 (the current no-date version released in 2020) is down by abour 5 percent percent over the past year, according to the ChronoPulse Index. If you want a date complication, the current reference 126610LN is down by four percent. This sets these desirable models right around retail prices (plus tax). This is a common benchmark for used pricing. The 126610 with date can cost right around $13,000 with box and papers as of this writing, and the 124060 no-date model can be had for just over $10,000.
Maybe scoring a sub at retail isn’t quite the great deal is seemed just a few years ago.
Surprisingly, the all-green “Hulk” reference 116610 of 2010—which was once downright scarce a few years ago—just shot down, as well. During the pandemic you’d be paying over $26,000 for a Hulk, but now they’re available for below $17,000. Shocking, really.
True Vintage Submariners
Though ChronoPulse doesn’t report data on the four-digit references (World War II to ~1979), we’d recommend looking at the revered 1680 Submariner with date, which Rolex produced with “SUBMARINER” written in either red text or white. The revered “Red Sub” always costs more. We’re seeing good looking 1680s with white text down around $14,000, while Red Subs closer to $20,000 and up. You can check out a recent edition of our weekly column Shopping Time for some excellent deals on vintage Subs.
A caveat: Vintage prices tend to operate on their own calculus, as trends (and thus supply), as well as condition, drive that market in less predictable ways. In short, you’ll see a very wide variation in pricing, though the trend is generally down.
The Five-Digit GMT-Master II Is Looking Reasonable (Again)
The coveted GMT-Master II models are also down, but the changes are less drastic than with the Subs. Discontinued models like the steel reference 126710LN “Pepsi” on Jubilee bracelet appears to be holdin steady, but five-digit reference 16710 Pepsi GMT-Master II models are down by over seven percent over past 12 months. This means you’ll pay under $10,000 for a nice GMT Master II. That’s way down, and given the rising prices of watches generally, not a horrible deal at all.
Condition of five-digit GMT-Master II references is especially influential on pricing. The fading of the bezel insert tends to send some collectors head-over-heals if it’s especially ghosted (sun bleached), while excessive case polishing (which was common in the five-digit era) will drive prices downward. All this to say, there’s a wide range of pricing for GMT-Master II references, but if you’re looking for a very cool watch to wear every day, a relatively clean one can be had under $10,000.
Explorer II Prices Falling
If there’s a collector’s Rolex, it is the 40 mm Explorer II 16570, especially with a “polar” (white) dial. These have always been the less desirable GMTs from Rolex, but they’re very popular with watch enthusiasts, partly because they were reasonably priced. As it turns out, the 40 mm 16570 with a black dial is down over the past year, but fluctuates a bit more than other models (likely due to recent journalism on the 16570, as well as growing demand for smaller watches). Meanwhile the six-digit 42 mm 226570 is also significantly in the same time period.
You can always expect to pay more for white dials than black ones with Explorer II references, but the prices are really down: Around $8000 for a black dial, and as little as $8500 for a white dial as of this writing. As always, condition, service history and box and papers will be important.
Big Datejusts Down, Little Datejusts Up
A 41 mm Rolex Datejust used to be a really big deal to own, but tastes have decidedly changed toward smaller watches, and even toward small dress watches. We are fairly confident that these trends have driven prices for the 41 mm Datejust down a full 14 percent over the past year, which really is a stunning result. Meanwhile, the 36 mm Datejust is up by 55 over 12 months, and continues to spike. Who would have guessed this?
The Datejust’s impressive performance may also indicate the growing preference for dressier watches. Based on anecdotal reports from fellow collectors, that assessment feels right. (Note: ChronoPulse doesn’t offer data on the 36 mm Oyster Perpetuals.)
The Daytona, Milgauss, and More
I think the picture we’re painting, supported by data, is relatively clear: This is a Rolex buyer’s market, with some exceptions for specific models.
For example, steel Rolex Daytonas remain expensive overall (roughly double what you’d pay at retail for a Daytona), and yet the Rolex Daytona 116500LN from 2016 is down over 12 percent over since this time last year. Even the discontinued Milgauss 116400GV is down four percent in that time. Daytonas and discontinued models going down is a clear sign of the buyer’s market.
As with buying any pre-owned watch: Do your research, find a great example, and take note of whether you’re looking at an anomaly that shot up in price, or if you’re getting a good deal because that model’s price has fallen. You may also want to check out our video offering tips on buying vintage and pre-owned watches.
As always, happy collecting!
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