- The computer software industry just showed investors it has a lot more upside than most think through the manufacturing PMI index.
- Three stocks stand out, commanding premiums due to their high growth and price action momentum.
- Wall Street analysts think there is double-digit upside to be had in these names as well.
Investors may be worried about the future of the computer and technology sector, especially now that the former darling in the space, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:), is threatening to go into a correction in potentially the coming months. However, recent economic data suggests that there are other names in the space that are still worth taking another look into.
These stocks share the same characteristics that the manufacturing PMI index reported in its latest issue, so the odds are in favor of bulls in MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:), SAP (NYSE:), and even PTC (NASDAQ:). These names would expose investors to the potential bull runs that could be seen in the cryptocurrency space as interest rate cuts work their way through and give it a run higher.
More than that, finance is now relying on software applications and increased technology implementation in daily operations, and this portfolio aligns investors with that rising demand trend as well. Not to mention the artificial intelligence capabilities needed in the product development and visualization space. Here are some of the fundamental and technical factors that place the odds in favor of these companies this cycle.
Key Fundamental Drivers Fueling the Computer Software Industry
The main drivers in the manufacturing PMI index are new orders, production, and inventories. Both new orders and output moved significantly over the last report, with inventories contracting aggressively, which signals upcoming demand across the sector.
But not all industries are made equal. The computer and electronics industries share the same dynamics, meaning investors can expect to see added and accelerating demand in the space. Even then, not all stocks are made equal, so ideally, those with premium forward P/E valuations and above-average earnings per share (EPS) growth will make for better candidates.
Long Candidate #1: MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin
The last time the (the Fed) cut interest rates, the price of Bitcoin more than doubled. This time, history could repeat itself, which is why MicroStrategy is increasing its balance sheet Bitcoin holdings so that the stock’s book value will rise with it.
Even though the stock trades at 82% of its 52-week high, Wall Street analysts still believe it could reach a new high before the year ends. Benchmark leads the way with a price target set at $215 a share for MicroStrategy stock, which calls for a net upside of 30% from where the stock trades today.
Moreover, bearish traders have been forced to cover their short positions over the past quarter. MicroStrategy’s short interest fell from $5.3 billion last quarter to $3.6 billion today, with a 2.9% contraction in the past month alone. Replacing these bears were some institutional buyers that were added recently.
Leading the buying were those at Park Avenue Securities, boosting their holdings by over 1,000% as of October 2024, bringing their net investment to $1.2 million today.
Long Candidate #2: Banks Need SAP
The financial sector is now increasingly dependent on technology and software for operations and risk management processes, and SAP stock is a major provider of these processes.
Since the stock has traded up to 95% of its 52-week high, investors can start to see the market reward the name with bullish momentum.
As of September 2024, analysts at Barclays decided to boost their price target on SAP stock to $252 a share and keep their “Overweight” ratings. To prove these analysts right, the stock would need to rally by 14.5% from its current level.
Wall Street analysts think that there will be additional demand for SAP’s services in the coming months, so they forecast up to 52.7% EPS growth for the next 12 months. Based on these expectations, the market is now willing to pay a 34.5x forward P/E ratio over the industry’s average of 28.4x.
Long Candidate #3: Labor Costs Aided By PTC’s AI
Now that inflation is pushing the price of everything higher, especially labor, some companies may look to artificial intelligence to help them lower their costs and expand their margins and net profits. This is where the PTC expertise comes into play.
The stock is currently trading at 92% of its 52-week high, making for another bullish momentum play favoring investors. Based on the consensus price target, current analyst ratings suggest the stock could have a valuation as high as $200.2 a share, or a 12% upside from today’s stock price.
With Wall Street EPS growth forecasts set at 19.8% for the next 12 months, investors now can see why the market is willing to pay a premium forward P/E valuation of up to 30.0x over the industry’s average, as stocks that tend to grow above peers command these higher multiples.
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